The Mufti Predicts: Chaos and Carnage!

The Pastor has insisted that I redo my predictions for this second round. He’s very demanding, even at this great distance, and I don’t have the willpower to deny him what he wants. Otherwise, he might send Supercat after me. Wonder where he’s been this whole World Cup? Not to worry, I don’t feel like he’s going to make an imminent appearance, although I do blame him for that waitress not liking me any more. Ah, such is the lot of lonely Mufti. You think it’s the turban and beard combination?

Before I jump headlong (I always jump headlong but this time it’s with more force!) and wade into the morass of predictions, I’d like to get this off my chest. Fellow World Cup blogger Chris Ross has a good article about Frank Lampard’s non-goal in the match against Germany (oh, the agony!) and what he felt to be its massive impact. While I think Chris makes a valid point, I wrote this in reply to his comment:

Thanks for the praise, Chris. Just read your article, well-written as well, and you make a crucial point about that goal. Capello was keen to point that out in his interview after the match, and yes, momentum and confidence-wise it was a big turning point. But, and I in turn cannot emphasize this enough, England were extremely slow in defense and Capello, who had to be aware of the counter-attacking danger from the Germans in the situation England found themselves in, did not make any tactical or personnel changes to nullify the threat. He stuck with the 4-4-2, made like-for-like substitutions (although not sure what Joe Cole’s role really was) and Barry’s coverage play did not improve. Why not throw Carrick on? Why not put Joe Cole on the left, push Gerrard up the middle instead of bring on Heskey? You need goals and Heskey comes on? Earth to Fabio: Heskey does NOT score!

Anyway, I could go on and on (and already have) but I’m too gutted to really be of much argumentative use. I think there needs to be a massive change in the training methods of English youth and a push to prioritize the national team which I feel is at a disadvantage to the English club game. Without that, England will fail like this in major international tournaments time and again, no matter what magic dust they feel a foreign coach with a lot of experience can sprinkle over players who fail at the basics of the sport. The Germans may not be miles (or in this case, 4-1) better than England but on the night, they were. They passed the ball well, took their chances well, and controlled the match even when not in possession. Nothing spectacular; just good football. I look forward to checking out more of your opinion of the other matches.

I know I went on a bit there, but I think I’ll just stop talking about that now.

Despite my predicting more results correctly than Pastor, he does win out on the number of qualifiers he predicted for the second round, getting 12 correct to my 11. I told you he was good. I had little faith in USA while he had little in Slovakia and too much in Italy. I had too much on the African teams, who let me down badly (I had Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa going through). Despite having seen all the teams play now, I’m going to stick with what I predicted beforehand for the unchanged matchups. Here we go:

Match 1: Uruguay vs South Korea

My original matchup was Mexico/Nigeria with Nigeria winning in extra time (African teams have a habit of going to extra time). As it was, I predicted 2-1 to Uruguay before the match and that’s how it turned out to be.

Match 2: USA vs Ghana

As England did not win their group and we failed to see France emerge from theirs, this side of the bracket had an unfamiliar look to it. I predicted Ghana to win it 1-0 in extra time, and they did it 2-1 in extra time. However, I sincerely believed, like the Pastor, that the Americans were capable of better. On the night, the psychological toll of conceding twice (which to be fair were very good goals) did for them in the end.

Match 3: Germany vs England

This was originally Germany vs Slovenia, and I had only gone for a 2-1 German win. I predicted England to take this 2-0 in the second half. Now I don’t know why and as I said, I don’t want to talk about it.

Match 4: Argentina vs Mexico

I was surprised the hosts South Africa did not qualify. As it was, I saw them being beaten here 3-1 by Argentina, and Argentina subjected Mexico to the same scoreline. In my opinion, there was a bit of luck heading the way of the Argentines in this game, and now they get to meet the other team that has had some luck, Germany. Should be a cracker.

Match 5: Netherlands vs Slovakia

I had this matchup already predicted at 2-0 and I’ll stick by it. The Dutch haven’t been tested by a big team yet, and so I expect them to play similarly to their group stage matches and grind out a win. But if there’s an upset on the cards in this round, it might just be Slovakia who played very well against Italy but weren’t that good against New Zealand or Paraguay. Depends on which Slovakia turns up.

Match 6: Brazil vs Chile

Again, I’d already predicted 4-1 Brazil win for this fixture. I don’t think Brazil will beat them by that much but Chile will be missing three suspended defensive players. They are quite good on the counter but have had difficulty scoring. I’ll be rooting for them but I think Brazil will be too strong.

Match 7: Paraguay vs Japan

Japan are really the surprise of the tournament so far for me. The Pastor has faith in them to go to the semifinals. I will snigger derisively at this and predict, okay, I won’t, because I think he might just be right. I originally had Cameroon winning 2-0 over Paraguay and this time I’ll go for Japan with the same scoreline.

Match 8: Spain vs Portugal

This turned out the same and I predicted a victory for Portugal via penalty kicks. I’ll stick by this and here’s why: Portugal have yet to concede and were defensively very solid in qualifying too. Spain will get frustrated although if Alonso is not fit and Fabregas comes in, that might change things. Del Bosque has been conservative and I fear that he’ll stick with his system and bring in Javi Martinez in place of Alonso. If Torres continues to misfire, this might be very tight, go to penalties and as Casillas is not his imperious Euro 2008 self, Portugal will go on to a quarterfinal against Japan.

Speaking of which, real quick quarterfinals predictions: Uruguay 1  Ghana 1, Uruguay winning on penalties,  Argentina vs Germany I had Argentina winning on penalties. I’ll actually change this one and have Argentina winning 3-2 instead in the match of the tournament. Portugal to beat Japan 2-0, and the Netherlands to overcome Brazil 1-0. The Dutch will continue on their inexorable run to the final by defeating Uruguay 3-1 while Argentina will unlock that Portuguese defense with a 3-0 win. And my final remains the same, Netherlands overcoming Argentina 2-1. Messi will have to wait until 2014.

Second Round Match 51: Germany vs England

What’s this? Oh just a little match between teams that don’t have any history or rivalry or any bad feelings left over from World War II. Right? So wrong, so wrong. I’m writing here on about four hours of sleep but I woke up buzzing in anticipation. This is the biggest match so far, a major matchup of footballing powers although both these teams are very different from their traditional makeup, especially Germany. I have to admit that ever since the 2006 World Cup, I have really enjoyed watching the Germans play and it won’t be a bad thing to see them progress at this World Cup. At the same time, this is an English team run by a man known for nothing if not winning, Fabio Capello. There is no way that he is letting the Germans roll right over his team. That team does not have the kind of world-class performers that perhaps it had in 2002 or even 2006, but they had an impressive qualification campaign (how often do we say that about England?) and finished with the most goals scored of any European team.

I’m sticking with my prediction of 2-0 to England but I’m going to really jinx myself and am secretly hoping for a penalty shootout win for England. Imagine banishing two ghosts at once! Later on in the day, we have Argentina vs Mexico. Pastor has abandoned his surprise team for the tournament, Mexico, and predicts an Argentina win. I’ll have to do the same but I have no idea in what manner that win will come. Mexico have a poor record against Argentina and I don’t see the match going to penalties with the goalscoring prowess Argentina have. Let me just say  2-1 to Argentina and be done with it. The anthems are in progress, we are five minutes away. I can’t keep food down right now.

England are unchanged from the last game. A bit concerned about Matthew Upson in the center of defense. Germany bring in Klose. This is now officially under way. England!

1st half:

5th minute: An early mistake from the linesman as Lahm played Rooney onside but he’s flagged when he’s clear with only one man to beat. Unfortunate. Ozil goes for it at the other end but James stands firm and saves. The corner for Germany is also caught by him. A confident start from old Calamity.

17th minute: A cautious beginning from both teams, and fairly even so far. The English look a little too narrow for my liking. Germany using the width of the pitch a little better. Rooney looks angry. That could be both good and bad for England.

20th minute: Defensive disaster for England. Ball over the top from the goalkeeper is let bounce and Klose is on the chase and beats both Terry and Upson to the ball and puts a great finish past James. England are 1-0 down early on.

30th minute: Chances at both ends. Khedira, Muller and Klose combine beautifully and James earns his pay by making a great save with his legs. On the other end, Defoe hits the bar with a header. He’s flagged off for offside anyway.

32nd minute: I do think it officially is over for England. Another offensive move of great skill opens up England and Podolski finishes expertly through James’ legs. 2-0 to Germany. English defense, needless to say, completely torn apart.

36th minute: Germany almost again from a corner as Barry messes up his control badly. It’s another corner that James catches. Lampard looking dangerous all of a sudden.

37th minute: Oh yes and oh no. A corner comes in and Upson scores. Then Lampard has a shot that bounces off the bar and crosses the line, two inches behind the line and it’s not given. Unbelievable. All the Germans will be saying this is justice for that 1966 goal. That was a much clearer goal than that one though. What a letoff for Germany. It’s 2-1 but really, really should be 2-2.

Half-time: That is the worst decision by a linesman I’ve seen since, well, 1966. That defines the match, as well as England’s sluggish defense that has been exposed time and again. Germany aren’t looking too solid themselves at the back. A nightmare for England but perhaps Capello can use this injustice to fire up his team. And they need more width, a little more penetration but they are afraid of that German counterattack, and rightly so. I can’t see that replay. If England lose, that replay will become almost as famous that that other one.

2nd half:

46th minute: Seeing that replay over and over again, it just gets worse and worse. England have to win this to erase that.

52nd minute: Lampard with a free kick and he hits the bar and bounces off. Not going to be England’s night, the crowd says.

58th minute: A slow start to the second half and England look a little ponderous again. England need to put aside that disallowed goal and go for it.

63rd minute: A bit of a wake up here from England as Milner and Defoe have half-chances. At the other end, Schweinsteiger has a shot go just wide. Nerves? Yes, I know what nerves are right now. Joe Cole has just come on for James Milner, who hasn’t had a bad game.

67th minute: A Frank Lampard hits the wall and Germany counter with speed and precision, and Muller shoots it in from the right. It’s 3-1 to Germany. Don’t expect much more from me today.

70th minute: Another counterattack, another goal. It’s Muller again. It’s 4-1. Goodbye, England.

72nd minute: There’s a raffle for an England shirt. If I win it, I’m burning it in the parking lot.

75th minute: Germany smelling blood. Unmitigated disaster for England. Poor defending, poor attack, poor midfield. Doesn’t matter about that goal that wasn’t, they have been destroyed.

78th minute: An exchange of texts:

American Friend: Man dude. Really rough loss.

Me: I’m wiping this from my memory banks

AF: Are you still even watching it?

Me: What are you talking about?

AF: The game. Are you still watching it?

Me: What game?

82nd minute: Gerrard with a chance to breathe some life into England but Neuer saves. A counterattack is stopped illegally by Johnson who gets a yellow. Commentator says he’ll miss the quarterfinal. What quarterfinal?

Full-time: The conversation turns back to the goal that wasn’t but I just say that they were shit, and if they had won they would not have deserved it. They were shit. An old war song goes up from the back of the room, “There were 11 German bombers in the sky, but the Harrier from England shot one down….” I know what’s been shot down today: all English illusions about being good at this sport they allegedly invented. At 2-1 and that non-goal, it was a match between men. In the second half, it was men against boys. Good on Germany. A great team, a great match from them against a tough opponent. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go on to win it. They play very, very good football.

Go Mexico, I guess.

Matchday 13: Slovenia vs England & USA vs Algeria

Why do England always do this to me? Why do I do it to myself? They never make it easy. Is today the day I finally give up on them? If England go out of the World Cup today, I’m officially abandoning them forever.

Luckily, they’ve increased their chances by dropping Emile Heskey. Aaron Lennon is also dropped and James Milner starts. Perhaps a bit more solid on the right. There does not seem to be a change of system, however, from Fabio Capello. And they might have decreased their chances by dressing like numpties in an all red kit. All red looks a bit silly. Oh well, whatever helps them, I guess.

Oh there’s another match? No one told me although I suppose I could have figured it out from the loud crowd downstairs. USA drop Oguchi Onyewu, who had been good in defense. And Edu, the scorer of the disallowed goal, starts in place of Torres and Hercules Gomes comes in for the suspended Robbie Findley. I can’t wait for this. Here we go!

1st halves:

6th minute: Chances coming thick and fast in USA vs Algeria, as Algeria hit the post and USA go up the other end and the keeper saves. The corner comes to not much. England vs Slovenia staid so far, though Slovenia have a free kick. England have trouble clearing it. Oh look at that! Rooney with the ball and a great cross that’s cleared for a corner. He can play, after all.

16th minute: England actually playing a little bit as Frank Lampard hits a free kick which the keeper saves and then just misses a great through ball from Rooney. The playing surface is apparently a bit suspect after heavy rain. In the other game, it looks end-to-end. Bill Clinton is at that match.

21st minute: Chances in both matches. USA have the ball in the net but it’s chalked off for offside. It was at the third attempt at shooting after confusion in the Algerian defense. Slovenia have a shot that’s smothered by James. Slovenia do look scary coming forward, and Terry just had a last ditch tackle to stop a shooting opportunity. I can breathe again.

22nd minute: Yes yes yessss. Defoe scores! Milner crosses from the right, a cross Lennon would have botched, and Defoe scores, a shot that Heskey would have missed. Good switches from Capello. 1-0 to England.

27th minute: Lampard should have made that 2-0! Shit! The goal keeper knocks a ball into his path but he shoots it over the bar. No, Frank, must do better than that.

31st minute: Great from England. Defoe’s shot is saved into the path of Rooney, he passes to Gerrard whose shot is just saved and almost bobbles over the line Robert Green-style but the goalie manages to get a hold of it. This is the England we have been waiting for.

35th minute: USA should be ahead as Algeria barely survive. If it stands as it is, England and Slovenia are going through. One goal can change everything, though.

37th minute: How can Altidore miss that? He’s got an open enough goal and he shoots high, high over the bar. Terrible. They need a goal.

43rd minute: Algeria almost take the lead with a shot that goes just over the top corner of the goal. USA still taking potshots but I think they are getting frustrated.

Half-time: England are one up but this should be over. As the Englishman who just left to go to work said, “They are reverting to that cruise control that scares the crap out of me.” England need to keep the intensity high, just like they did after the goal when they had two good chances to put the game away. Still, this is a much, much improved display from England not that it would have taken much to improve over that Algeria debacle. USA are not taking their chances but at least they did not concede early. They can be unhappy with another disallowed goal though, that decision looks very marginal. Actually, just seen the replay and Dempsey is onside. Unfair on USA. Algeria still in with a chance.

2nd halves:

48th minute: England almost start on fire as a quickly taken corner by Rooney causes confusion in the box, and the ball comes to Defoe who just misses with his flick on. If they lose now, I won’t forgive him. Glen Johnson has a yellow for diving but it wasn’t a dive. He has to be careful now.

50th minute: Everyone thought that was a goal. Cole slips a great ball to Rooney who centers for Defoe to hit it in but it is, after all, offside. They have started the second half really well. Slovenia dive and get a free kick.

55th minute: Careless from Gerrard as England concede a free kick but it’s easily saved by James.

57th minute: England have a corner after a good spell of pressure. A bit of impressive play even down the right by Milner and Johnson. Terry’s header is saved amazingly on the line. That’s an awe-inspiring save. It’s Rooney and he’s onside! But he hits the post! Shit! And in the other game, USA hit the post! The rebound is hit wide by Dempsey when he really should have scored. Disappointment all round in this room from both sets of supporters.

61st minute: A text from my American friend after that Dempsey miss: “Fucking fuck!”

64th minute: England have another corner. There’s an amazingly obvious dive in the other game from an Algerian player. Worthy of an Italian, I’d say.

68th minute: Desperate, desperate defending from England. It all started with Gerrard giving the ball away, which he’s done a few times already, and Slovenia have a chance in the box. A block by Terry and then a block by Johnson before a shot goes wide. All of England can breathe again. The USA in the meanwhile keep missing chance upon chance.

73rd minute: Look who it is. It’s Joe Cole on for Wayne Rooney, who might be hurt. Sounds like he didn’t shake Capello’s hand as he came off. Is he mad at the boss?

83rd minute: Can England hold on? Can’t believe how nervous I am, my hands are shaking. Or that might be the overload of coffee. USA trying really hard, Algeria doing nothing except defending. DaMarcus Beasley comes on for USA. Didn’t know he was still around.

76th minute: “Clap clap clap, England, clap clap clap, England!” in this room, “USA! USA! USA!” in the next.

79th minute: A little disappointing from England as they try to waste time instead of going for the second goal. Same old England, really, in the end.

81st minute: It’s very tense in both matches as the Americans have a free kick. Saved again. Now they have a corner. Cleared. Slovenia are out if USA score.

85th minute: England are out if Slovenia score. And they have a corner. Heskey is on for Defoe. The Slovenia shot from the corner is at skyscraper height.

88th minute: My nerves are shredded. It should not be this narrow. They make it so hard on everyone involved.

92nd minute: England time-wasting. A bit of frustration in the room. USA might be going out in 4 minutes. Beasley is booked for handball. A corner for England. OHMYGODOHMYGOD! USA have scored! England are through with a 1-0 win! Slovenia will be out if it if it stays like this. Two minutes for the US to go through! There’s a red card for an Algerian player.

94th minute: Thirty seconds left. And they are through! What a devastating end for Slovenia. As the final whistle blew in their match, Donovan scores in the other. USA deserved to win and go through. They are in first place based on goals scored. Donovan is in tears as he’s interviewed, the crowd here went absolutely insane, I’m about to go insane.

Full-time: What an end to these games. USA kept shooting and kept trying and are rewarded for playing well. They deserve to win the group. England finish in second place and have the very real prospect of facing Germany in the second round. We’ll find out in about two and a half hours. I need to go and take a rest.

How to fill the time between matches? The Mini Hoof Awards!

I’ll admit right off the bat that I’m bored at work. I’ve just read everything there is to read about the World Cup on the internet (yes, I’m on a long shift) and now I’m officially out of things to do. And considering that the second phase of group stage games isn’t over yet, I can’t give out any actual Hoof awards plus I would need El Pastor’s irreplaceable input. Instead, I’m going to go ahead and award some Mini Hoofs because this second phase so far has had much more controversy, drama and good matches than the first. And as I said, I’m bored.

First off, I have to acknowledge the pivotal role Nigeria’s Sani Kaita had on his team’s match against Greece. With his team leading 1-0 and the Greeks devoid of offensive ideas, he chose to aim a silly little kick in the direction of future goalscorer Torosidis. Soon Kaita was heading back to the dressing room with his head covered by his shirt in shame. His award? The David Beckham Self-Implosion Mini Hoof. (You can see why here.) Nigeria went on to lose 2-1, putting their further participation at the World Cup in serious jeopardy.

You won’t need to rewatch that video for why the “victim” of Kaita’s ill-advised retaliation is awarded the Diego Simeone “Ma, I’m Hurt!” Mini Hoof. Vasilis Torosidis went down as if Kaita’s studs were composed of piranha teeth, thus insuring that the referee noticed the infraction and sent Kaita off. A sad part of the cynical modern game.

I feel sorry for Harry Kewell, but I can’t help but award him the Mini World Cup Experience Mini Hoof for the 24 minutes he enjoyed on the pitch against Ghana. The poor man had only seen five minutes of action since January, and his unfortunate hand ball on the line saw him get sent off. If Australia fail to beat Serbia in their next match, a match for which Kewell is suspended, then that will be the extent of Kewell’s 2010 World Cup participation.

He’s apologized but it’s going to be hard for him to live this down. Wayne Rooney was quite unhappy that England’s fans were upset with his England “team” after their dismal showing against Algeria. He said as much to the TV cameras as he walked off the pitch, stating, “Nice to hear your home fans boo ya. That’s what loyal support is.” Yes, Wayne, and please let me show you this: your very own Worst First Touch Mini Hoof. The award comes with a free pair of football cleats. Perhaps that will help next time you proudly and passionately play football for your country. Oh wait. Pride? Passion? Football? I suppose you don’t understand those words, do you?

We don’t hear much truth in this world, or in this World Cup. But all credit to Nicolas “Le Sulk” Anelka for speaking his mind to his clueless French coach Raymond Domenech. During half time of his team’s awful 2-0 loss to Mexico, Domenech apparently criticized Anelka’s performance. His response? “Va te faire enculer, sale fils de pute!” As I don’t have the services of language maven Pastor, I think that means “Go fuck yourself, you dirty son of a whore!” Um, my sentiments exactly, Nicolas. I’m sure Anelka will be proudly clutching his Veritas Mini Hoof as he flies home before the rest of the team.

Competition has heated up for the Graham Poll Worst Referee Hoof. At the moment, I can only award Mini Hoofs to these two referees and perhaps some more brethren will be competing with them by the end of this phase. Our first Mini Hoof goes to Spanish referee Alberto Undiano for his quickfire bookings in the first half of the game between Germany and Serbia. At one point, I think he gave out four yellow cards in six minutes. A red card was inevitable, and the unlucky player was Miroslav Klose. The second Mini Hoof has to go to Malian referee Koman Coulibaly for disallowing a perfectly legal third US goal against Slovenia, which would have completed an amazing turnaround for the Americans who were 2-0 down at the half. It seems like Mr. Coulibaly won’t be officiating any more games at the World Cup.

I suspect this match will receive a major Hoof of some sort but for now I will award my France 2002 Inept Performance Mini Hoof to…no, not France, though I’m tempted, but to England for their match against Algeria. The criticism has been heavy and scathing, and I must admit that I agree with most of it. I don’t think I can recall a worse England international match, and they have served up some utterly shambolic performances over the years. Rubbish.

Finally, Germany have gone from the optimism of their big win against Australia to the despair of their loss against Serbia. The stand-out culprit for me was Lukas Podolski. Usually so clinical in front of goal for his country if not for his club, he failed to hit the target from several decent opportunities. Even when he did hit the target, with his penalty, it was weakly taken and the Serbian goalkeeper saved it quite easily. He can console himself with his Zombie Striker Mini Hoof, and we can all look forward to his hat-trick against Ghana.

Match 23: England vs Algeria

The permutations get interesting now in this surprisingly even group C. I had picked Slovenia to do something in this tournament and they have, though they will be disappointed with their second half performance against USA. The prospect for the qualifiers from this group have also gotten interesting as Serbia beat Germany earlier today. This could mean an England-Germany game in the second round. But it’s still all to play for, and England could still be eliminated if they fail to beat Algeria in this game. Gareth Barry is back in the team and as expected Robert Green is dropped and replaced by David James. There’s also talk of Jermain Defoe starting in place of Emile Heskey.

I was just talking to someone about the game and he said, “England should win.” I tried to stop him, I swear! Every time I hear an “England should win” they somehow contrive to screw it up. When Spain played, I had so much faith, and I wasn’t really nervous. But I’m always nervous when England play. That self-destruct switch is never far away when the English take the field, especially in recent years. Sendings-off, penalties, goalkeeping errors, tactical naivete, the English have it all. And then there’s Heskey (who is starting by the way, not Defoe).

Have faith, Mufti. England 5 Algeria 1! Go go go! Heskey hat trick! (okay, stretching my faith to breaking point there). Ingerrrrland!

Pre-game:

Not as crowded as I expected it to be. People are still talking about the referee and his obtuse decisions in the USA-Slovenia game and discussion is also rife of the Germany-Serbia game that’s currently replaying on the screens. Looks like the much-anticipated Battle of the Fumbling Goalkeepers is not going to take place as both Hoof winners Robert Green and Faouzi Chaouchi are dropped from their respective teams. Gareth Barry is back, and England probably have the slowest defensive pairing at the World Cup (okay, Australia might actually take that dubious prize) in Jamie Carragher and John Terry. Look, I love Carra and what he does for Liverpool but he’s not fast and he’s prone to the odd rash challenge. If he gives away a penalty I’ll never forgive him. In any case, he’s likely to pick up a yellow and then be suspended for the next match against Slovenia.

Oh look who it is. It’s Pastor with a report from Frankfurt airport:” in Frankfurt watching the US-Slovenia game… Slovenia is dominating so far… i’m extremely impressed. The US cannot lose in the first round… this should be a very manageable group for them
watched the second half of Germany Serbia…. WOW! the germans here are PISSED and fed up with Podolski… i laughed when he missed the penalty and got a few angry “IT’S NOT FUNNY” to which i replied ” then why the fuck is he taking the penalty, he hasn’t hit the target yet!” nobody acknowledged me after that.”

As usual, Pastor making friends everywhere he goes. Having just seen the penalty again, Podolski does make a bit of a mess of it but a great save from Stojkovic. The Germans were still impressive playing with 10 men and showed the greater attacking intent but Podolski was guilty of quite a few misses. I like it. This World Cup has finally a good aura of unpredictability around it and we’ve had a few unexpected results. Pastor’s prediction that the second round of games will be much better is thankfully coming true.

Can we start this already? Oh yes, we can.

1st half:

4th minute: Cheeky from Gerrard. He spots the goalie off the line and and from 30 yards let’s fly with an audacious lob. The goalie is up to it but an early statement of intent from the England captain.

22nd minute: The Algerians are dominating. They have been restricted to long range shots but they are getting crosses into the box and bossing the midfield. England are on the back foot. And here’s a corner for the North Africans. David James with an excellent catch. Whew.

33rd minute: First Gerrard and now Lampard. Opportunities presented but the final shot too easy for the keeper. A boring match so far.

35th minute: No mugs, these Algerians. They see the weaknesses in England’s midfield and are flowing forward. A long range shot goes just wide of James’ left post. Careless.

Half-time: Insipid. Uninspired. Bereft of ideas. Profligate in front of goal. Every football cliche that comes to mind I can apply to that half of “English football”. It’s time to burn those posters, give away the shirts and banish the delusions of grandeur. England suck. No two bones about it (running with the cliche theme here). Algeria look the more dangerous team and if England do not step up in the second half, they are looking at making it to the second round at best, or elimination in the group stages. Capello had a face of thunder as he immediately headed down the tunnel. English players in for a roasting. The crowd here is subdued. It’s been sleepy after the tension and drama in the first two games. Depend on England to provide us with this “entertainment”.

2nd half:

55th minute: There’s not much to say. They can’t pass the fucking ball. They can’t string together two, three passes to advance the ball. Gerrard has it in the clear but instead of shooting, he chooses to “pass” to the spot where Lampard was. These guys can never play together. Utter dross.

58th minute: There’s the yellow card that I predicted. Carragher to miss the next match and Algeria have a free kick in a dangerous area. Luckily for Carragher and England, it flies harmlessly wide.

75th minute: I’m losing faith in Capello. Gerrard dinks a lovely ball toward sub Defoe who is crowded out. Shouldn’t Gerrard play through the middle behind Rooney? He’s much more effective there than on the left. This is an atrocious game, an excuse for a football match.

80th minute: Rooney has done nothing all match. I feel like going to sleep. The Americans in the bar have completely lost interest. The foul stench of 0-0 permeates the place.

Full-time: The worst game of the World Cup. 0-0. Dreck. On this showing England don’t deserve to go any further in this World Cup. I’m going home to eat some ice cream to get the taste of this out of my mouth. Blech.

Predicting…injuries for everyone!

El Pastor, your prediction post is stellar work indeed. I have to admit that your breakdown of what it takes to win a World Cup is something I wholeheartedly agree with. The World Cup is ostensibly the pinnacle of the sport, the best of the world getting together to decide who wins. But at the risk of exposing myself as the cynical bastard that I truly am, I am going to make some sweeping statements that probably won’t hold up under further scrutiny. (Stop scrutinizing, Pastor.) To be sure, it’s a great tournament, and I’ll be peeing myself with excitement as I sit in a dingy bar at 7 am on June 11th. But is it really what it claims to be, the best of the best?

You make a great point about fitness, being fit enough to play seven games in a month at the end of long domestic seasons. And a lot of the best players that this World Cup might have seen have already crumbled. Some of these players held a big sway over their teams; they were the undoubted stars: Essien, Drogba. Some were integral parts of the coaches plan and they would have been definite starters if available, but the team can move on without them: Ferdinand, Ballack, Nani. And then there are the players nearing fitness, players that haven’t played a game in a few weeks, players that are just getting back to the levels they were capable of: Ashley Cole, Gareth Barry, Miroslav Klose, etcetera. It is sad to be without these players because they are the reason you watch the World Cup. Perhaps with all these players missing, it really isn’t the greatest collection of talent the World Cup has seen in recent times.

But I actually do agree with you. There aren’t really any big teams that failed to make the World Cup this time around (Guus Hiddink’s Russia might be the only exception). We have strong coaches leading even the smaller teams. Despite those missing above, we have players on a majority of teams that are capable of changing games, scoring sometimes the only goal needed for progress. It really does come down to moments then, as it always does. And in my mind, that’s the danger, the lurking scepter of Euro 2004 and Greece. I will not begrudge them their victory in that tournament, they fought for it and won it. But did the best team win that tournament? Absolutely not. Could that happen in South Africa? Absolutely. That is tournament football, when it comes down to those moments. That uncertainty is what makes the World Cup special but it also means that unfortunately the best team does not always win.

I seem to be talking myself into circles. Perhaps I should take off this turban. It’s hot in here, I’m thinking too hard. On to my predictions for the World Cup then, considering you’ve forced my hand. I’m going to make it slightly harder on my already overtaxed neurons and go ahead and predict scores as well. My nerdy Excel spreadsheet will then spit out the results and surprise even me.

[I have just returned from the end of this post using my time-travelling turban and read this on the BBC. Looks like not many people are picking the team I picked to win the World Cup! Bah to them! What do they know?][Looks like at least two people on Soccernet know what we are banging on about, though.]

i know who will win the world cup

many pundits say predicting a world cup is for idiots. i say they’re the idiots. trying to predict a world cup may indeed be silly but aren’t several things we enjoy most in life? for example, i enjoy irritating the great Mufti of the west by predicting he will start drinking again by mid-afternoon local time on July 2nd.

this is the best collection of talent i ever remember seeing at a world cup, on the squads and on the injury report. if the last few years in football have taught us anything it is that anybody can win a tournament in any given year (exhibit one, two, three, four, the uefa cup) as long as they do the obvious.

obvious – to win football games you need to do one single thing, the golden rule if you may: score one more goal than the opposition.

to win a single elimination tournament you need to be consistent with the golden rule, you also need: to do one thing really really well (team identity), a spine, composure, momentum and consistency, health, fearlessness, and luck. all you can do as a team is put yourself in the best position to win and then hope you don’t face Greece – just kidding… not really.

do one thing really really well (team identity): every team will hit a lull at some point or even be outplayed. if a team does one thing really really well then such occurrences become bearable. an overbearing defense can get a lackluster performance from the attack a few extra chances. a destructive attack can allow for a temporarily porous defense. doing one thing really really well will buy you mistakes.

spine: it’s the infrastructure of the team. having a world class defense, midfield or attack on its own is not as critical as having a spine. the spine is the roamer in front of the back four reducing pressure. the spine is the all around distributor whose pinpoint passes make an above average striker seem world class. the spine is the setup, the stop, the break of the opponent’s flow, the towering midfield header, the physical presence, and more… in a player or two.

composure: pressure can take its toll. pressure from previous tournaments can take its toll. composure comes from the top down, from the manager to the players, from the captain to the newbie. the hope of a nation could come down to one simple kick for eternal glory. composure is key.

momentum and consistency: you naturally need it during the tournament but also coming into the tournament. the quality of play has to be present throughout the qualification and friendlies. the team has to play together without too many changes in order to maximize potential.

health: this is a tournament of stamina and health. the winner is looking at 7 strong performances in a month. players might not need to be in mid-season shape but at the very least they need to be healthy. (funny how everything comes down to relativity in single elimination tournaments: you don’t have to be the best of all time but simply the best on that day)

fearlessness: winning a single elimination tournament takes balls, very large ones at times. think of this comeback. think of this goal. think of this one too. this one rules them all. let’s make this easier. think of a save (0:29), then another (1:49), and then another (3:00). think of this free kick.
luck: when the opportunity presents itself you hand the ball, that’s called opportunistic. the referee not seeing it, that’s called luck.

power ranking – here are the teams, grouped by potential to win the world cup based on the criteria above.

thank you for playing – teams glaringly missing several of the components
South Africa – South Korea – Algeria – Slovenia – Japan – New Zealand – Slovakia – Korea DPR – Switzerland – Honduras

teams that could have an impact – they are are missing a few components
Uruguay – Nigeria – Australia – Ghana – Denmark – Paraguay – Chile

teams with an outside chance – they have most of the criteria but will need something real special
Mexico – France – USA – Germany – Serbia – Cameroon – Italy – Cote D’Ivoire – Portugal

favorites – why they will win in three words or less and why they won’t in two or less
Argentina
will – Messi, best attack
won’t – defensive midfield
England
will – defense, composure (Capello)
won’t – health, pressure
Netherlands
will – most creative team
won’t – self-destructive
Brazil
will – best all-around
won’t – umm… stumped
Spain
will – best talent, Xavi
won’t – health, focus

Greece (the category)
Greece (the team)

Can I pause the news while I’m at work?

Stop it! Stop! I guess I’ll just have to risk the wrath of my boss and post because there is too much to write about and as Pastor’s been getting the jump on me consistently in the group analysis, I’ll just continue talking about the news.

The big news today for England is the loss of captain Rio Ferdinand. Although in terms of how the team will play this is not a big blow, it might be one mentally for the team (losing two captains on such short notice? Very careless!). That’s where Capello will come in and I think if anyone can be trusted to make sure this does not have too big of a mental impact, it’s him. Ferdinand didn’t have the best season, and although some of that can definitely be blamed on injuries, he did not perform to the level we are used to seeing from him even when he played. England are certainly well-covered in that position, with King, Carragher, Upson and Dawson ready to step in. And of course I am biased when I say this, but Gerrard being captain for the World Cup could be great for his performance and for the team as a whole. He’s not called “inspirational” at Liverpool for nothing.

And now we get to laugh again at Raymond Domenech as his France lost 1-0 to China. Ah, what comedic relief he will provide as his team exits in the first round! I hope his last match in charge is the one against South Africa.

The final injury news is concerning Didier Drogba, who hurt his elbow playing against Japan. Without him, that group of death suddenly looks rather alive (sorry). I doubt though that this will keep him out of the Cup and of course, Eriksson’s got a habit of taking injured players to the World Cup. Why should he change now? For the record, Ivory Coast won the game 2-0.

The only other friendly going on right now is Slovenia against New Zealand. We’re almost at half-time and the Slovenes are winning 3-1. I’ll have to tender my Group E riposte here in a little bit, Pastor, don’t go anywhere.

Capello’s coterie

The big news today (at least in the English press) is Theo Walcott’s exclusion from Fabio Capello’s World Cup squad. I still think he’s probably a better impact substitute than Shaun Wright-Phillips (Aaron Lennon seems to have claimed the starting right midfield berth) but Capello has gone for the experience of Wright-Phillips and probably his habit of scoring goals in an England shirt. Capello also went for experience in picking Joe Cole over Adam Johnson for a possible left-midfield berth or, more likely, coming off the bench. Cole was one of the few players to acquit himself in the friendly against Japan and has played his way into the team. The same cannot be said for Tom Huddlestone, who was part of a horrible first half against Japan and lost his place to Michael Carrick, who isn’t much better in my mind but does have more big-game experience in his time with Man Poo. He isn’t too likely to feature if Gareth Barry recovers from his ankle injury, as is expected. It is a little disappointing that just like in the last two World Cups, there is an injured English player going to the World Cup even if Barry isn’t in the same talismanic league as Beckham in 2002 or Rooney in 2006.

The best names on a final World Cup squad probably belong to the hosts South Africa. It would have been even more awesome if Innocent Mdedle had made the squad. Will South Africa have a tragic first round as indicated by the inclusion of MacBeth [Sibaya]? Or will they spring a Surprise [Moriri] and win their group, caning France and Mexico along the way like they did Guatemala yesterday? More seriously, all-time top scorer Benni McCarthy has been left out of the squad, probably because he’s fat.

In other friendly news (yes, I gave up the friendly puns, aren’t you happy, Pastor?), Australia beat Denmark 1-0 earlier today and in about an hour, Cameroon take on Portugal and the Netherlands play Ghana. Both matches actually look like they could be interesting contests, even if they are warm-up games. I am especially curious to see how the African teams progress. I really want an African team in the semifinals; Cameroon look the strongest at the moment. (I’m unceremoniously abandoning the Algerians, they should have never trusted me.) Also curious to see if the portents of doom regarding Portugal are justified.

I never thought I’d say this, but Pastor I miss you. Come back and make me feel stupid again. It is my lot in life, and I am learning to accept it.

Friendly fire

Whew, that was a close one. Sorry to introduce everyone in such an odd manner to Pastor’s sidekick. Obviously not a football fan.

For fans of football, England’s first half showing against Japan was distinctly uncomfortably viewing. They were lucky in the end to win thanks to the two own goals. I still don’t think that these unconvincing victories are too much of a cause for concern as when the pressure and expectation is on I expect these players to perform much better. I am a bit concerned about the second straight penalty Frank Lampard has missed after his miss for Chelsea in the FA Cup final. Probably the worst possible time to lose confidence in your primary spot-kick taker.

The other friendlies didn’t hold a lot in the way of surprises, although Chilean coach Marcelo Bielsa had two different sides turn out a few hours apart. Both emerged victorious, a single goal being enough to overcome Northern Ireland and Israel being dispatched 3-0. Plenty of players to choose from for Bielsa. France might be a little concerned after a 1-1 draw against Tunisia. Nigeria managed a 1-1 draw against Colombia, and Sven-Goran Eriksson will have much to ponder after his first match in charge of the Ivory Coast saw them throw away a 2-0 lead with 15 minutes left against Paraguay, eventually having to settle for a 2-2 draw. Eriksson showed what he can do quickly in his sole season in charge of Manchester City but he also had some mixed results when at the helm of England and most recently, Mexico. The Ivory Coast is a talented team but they are coming into the Cup on the back of some instability.

Hopefully I can keep Supercat at bay until I can post my Group D analysis at some point tomorrow. It will also give me time to think up more bad puns with the word “friendly”.