The Mufti Predicts: Chaos and Carnage!

The Pastor has insisted that I redo my predictions for this second round. He’s very demanding, even at this great distance, and I don’t have the willpower to deny him what he wants. Otherwise, he might send Supercat after me. Wonder where he’s been this whole World Cup? Not to worry, I don’t feel like he’s going to make an imminent appearance, although I do blame him for that waitress not liking me any more. Ah, such is the lot of lonely Mufti. You think it’s the turban and beard combination?

Before I jump headlong (I always jump headlong but this time it’s with more force!) and wade into the morass of predictions, I’d like to get this off my chest. Fellow World Cup blogger Chris Ross has a good article about Frank Lampard’s non-goal in the match against Germany (oh, the agony!) and what he felt to be its massive impact. While I think Chris makes a valid point, I wrote this in reply to his comment:

Thanks for the praise, Chris. Just read your article, well-written as well, and you make a crucial point about that goal. Capello was keen to point that out in his interview after the match, and yes, momentum and confidence-wise it was a big turning point. But, and I in turn cannot emphasize this enough, England were extremely slow in defense and Capello, who had to be aware of the counter-attacking danger from the Germans in the situation England found themselves in, did not make any tactical or personnel changes to nullify the threat. He stuck with the 4-4-2, made like-for-like substitutions (although not sure what Joe Cole’s role really was) and Barry’s coverage play did not improve. Why not throw Carrick on? Why not put Joe Cole on the left, push Gerrard up the middle instead of bring on Heskey? You need goals and Heskey comes on? Earth to Fabio: Heskey does NOT score!

Anyway, I could go on and on (and already have) but I’m too gutted to really be of much argumentative use. I think there needs to be a massive change in the training methods of English youth and a push to prioritize the national team which I feel is at a disadvantage to the English club game. Without that, England will fail like this in major international tournaments time and again, no matter what magic dust they feel a foreign coach with a lot of experience can sprinkle over players who fail at the basics of the sport. The Germans may not be miles (or in this case, 4-1) better than England but on the night, they were. They passed the ball well, took their chances well, and controlled the match even when not in possession. Nothing spectacular; just good football. I look forward to checking out more of your opinion of the other matches.

I know I went on a bit there, but I think I’ll just stop talking about that now.

Despite my predicting more results correctly than Pastor, he does win out on the number of qualifiers he predicted for the second round, getting 12 correct to my 11. I told you he was good. I had little faith in USA while he had little in Slovakia and too much in Italy. I had too much on the African teams, who let me down badly (I had Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa going through). Despite having seen all the teams play now, I’m going to stick with what I predicted beforehand for the unchanged matchups. Here we go:

Match 1: Uruguay vs South Korea

My original matchup was Mexico/Nigeria with Nigeria winning in extra time (African teams have a habit of going to extra time). As it was, I predicted 2-1 to Uruguay before the match and that’s how it turned out to be.

Match 2: USA vs Ghana

As England did not win their group and we failed to see France emerge from theirs, this side of the bracket had an unfamiliar look to it. I predicted Ghana to win it 1-0 in extra time, and they did it 2-1 in extra time. However, I sincerely believed, like the Pastor, that the Americans were capable of better. On the night, the psychological toll of conceding twice (which to be fair were very good goals) did for them in the end.

Match 3: Germany vs England

This was originally Germany vs Slovenia, and I had only gone for a 2-1 German win. I predicted England to take this 2-0 in the second half. Now I don’t know why and as I said, I don’t want to talk about it.

Match 4: Argentina vs Mexico

I was surprised the hosts South Africa did not qualify. As it was, I saw them being beaten here 3-1 by Argentina, and Argentina subjected Mexico to the same scoreline. In my opinion, there was a bit of luck heading the way of the Argentines in this game, and now they get to meet the other team that has had some luck, Germany. Should be a cracker.

Match 5: Netherlands vs Slovakia

I had this matchup already predicted at 2-0 and I’ll stick by it. The Dutch haven’t been tested by a big team yet, and so I expect them to play similarly to their group stage matches and grind out a win. But if there’s an upset on the cards in this round, it might just be Slovakia who played very well against Italy but weren’t that good against New Zealand or Paraguay. Depends on which Slovakia turns up.

Match 6: Brazil vs Chile

Again, I’d already predicted 4-1 Brazil win for this fixture. I don’t think Brazil will beat them by that much but Chile will be missing three suspended defensive players. They are quite good on the counter but have had difficulty scoring. I’ll be rooting for them but I think Brazil will be too strong.

Match 7: Paraguay vs Japan

Japan are really the surprise of the tournament so far for me. The Pastor has faith in them to go to the semifinals. I will snigger derisively at this and predict, okay, I won’t, because I think he might just be right. I originally had Cameroon winning 2-0 over Paraguay and this time I’ll go for Japan with the same scoreline.

Match 8: Spain vs Portugal

This turned out the same and I predicted a victory for Portugal via penalty kicks. I’ll stick by this and here’s why: Portugal have yet to concede and were defensively very solid in qualifying too. Spain will get frustrated although if Alonso is not fit and Fabregas comes in, that might change things. Del Bosque has been conservative and I fear that he’ll stick with his system and bring in Javi Martinez in place of Alonso. If Torres continues to misfire, this might be very tight, go to penalties and as Casillas is not his imperious Euro 2008 self, Portugal will go on to a quarterfinal against Japan.

Speaking of which, real quick quarterfinals predictions: Uruguay 1  Ghana 1, Uruguay winning on penalties,  Argentina vs Germany I had Argentina winning on penalties. I’ll actually change this one and have Argentina winning 3-2 instead in the match of the tournament. Portugal to beat Japan 2-0, and the Netherlands to overcome Brazil 1-0. The Dutch will continue on their inexorable run to the final by defeating Uruguay 3-1 while Argentina will unlock that Portuguese defense with a 3-0 win. And my final remains the same, Netherlands overcoming Argentina 2-1. Messi will have to wait until 2014.

Tags: Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Ghana, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Paraguay, Portugal, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Uruguay, USA, World Cup