i still know who will win the world cup

Mufti and i had an extensive conversation yesterday regarding the semi-finalists and the world cup as a whole. we talked ourselves in circles regarding who would win what matchup, whether our predictions were any good, and whether this world cup is the best ever. we amicably agreed that this was the best world cup – so far – of our conscious lifetime. it has a little of everything and a whole lot of drama.

before the world cup we predicted and i ended up with three of four. none of the four teams in the semi-finals or who they beat to get there surprises me. several people had Spain, no surprise there. few had the germans, including their own. even fewer had the dutch, considering the potential clash with the former ‘Dunga kings’. hardly anybody had Uruguay – my consolation: i had the right group but the wrong team. what is surprising to everyone though is the style each team got to the semi-finals.

in the spirit of over-analyzing the shit out of this on my first full day back, here is the Pastor approved world cup semi-final gibberish.

Netherlands
Paving the yellow brick road

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the pre-tournament world champions
Also Known as – the team that gives me, as a Real Madrid fan, major heartburn
Mea Culpa – the only time i had doubts about them winning was right after the Brazil goal when they looked exposed
Strength – several sources of creativity
Weakness – they leave themselves exposed in defense at times
Team Identity – adaptability
Creative Chaos – Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie
Spine – Van Bronckhorst, Van Bommel, De Jong
Composure – 12 yellow cards so far but none compromising yet…
Momentum and Consistency – 24 game unbeaten streak
Health – Van Persie and Mathisjen are supposedly fit…
Fearlessness – can we just agree to call the second half against Brazil fearless?
Luck – the first goal by Brazil was deemed offside… considering the refereeing at the world cup that’s awfully lucky
One Word to Describe Their Game – adaptable
Group Stages – clinical
Round of 16 – easy
Quarter Finals – inspired
Why They Will Win – they can play different styles of football and they make very few mistakes
Why They Will Lose – they’re my pick to win it all
What Will Happen – they are the most aggressive team left in the world cup: 82 fouls committed. they will beat the win out of Uruguay

Uruguay
Whatever it takes

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the inconsistent team with a very high potential
Also Known as – the team missing a lot of components
Mea Culpa – i have had a crush on this team for a while but liked Mexico a bit more because i lived there
Strength – set pieces
Weakness – they tend to let their opponents dictate the game
Team Identity – maximize opportunities
Creative Chaos – Forlan, Suarez, Lodeiro
Spine – Arevalo, Perez and Pereira
Composure – two players attempted to stop the ball with their hands on the last play in extra time against Ghana, that’s what i call a competitive presence of mind
Momentum and Consistency – i wonder if they might be spent from the emotional rollercoaster quarter-final
Health – Luis Suarez isn’t unhealthy but he isn’t playing either
Fearlessness – Luis Suarez
Luck – Asamoah Gyan
One Word to Describe Their Game – blunt
Group Stages – beating Mexico got them the significantly easier draw
Round of 16 – the Suarez show in a match the South Koreans kind of dominated
Quarter Finals – oh the heartbreak… i will remember this ending forever
Why They Will Win – they have the ability to shut down and make the most out of set pieces, a dangerous combination
Why They Will Lose – Suarez accounts for as many shots and as many goals as their talisman sexy Diego
What Will Happen – Uruguay will cause the dutch to sweat and will make them work very hard for the win

Germany
Sometimes being someone else just works better

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the team i said was going to make it to the semi-finals…
Also Known as – … although i said they needed something real special to win it…
Mea Culpa – … they found the something real special easier than i expected
Strength – stamina and the counter attack
Weakness – they don’t have a go to guy when frustrated or when playing from behind
Team Identity – counter attack
Creative Chaos – no clear player, maybe Ozil and Muller if i have to pick
Spine – Schweinsteiger, Lahm
Composure – apart from the Klose red card this youthful team is very composed
Momentum and Consistency – the best team at the world cup so far including the Serbia game they dominated but lost
Health – Ballack missing was thought an issue, they have overcome rather easily
Fearlessness – their performance against England comes to mind especially their reaction to the non-goal goal
Luck – the non-goal goal could have changed the game
One Word to Describe Their Game – emboldened
Group Stages – Germany qualifying is the closest thing we have to a formality in football
Round of 16 – a combination of a strong performance, a bad call, and an opponent in disarray
Quarter Finals – absolutely dominated the spine, as expected
Why They Will Win – they are supreme on the counter and their stamina has taken the saying ‘never discount Germany in the last 20 min’ to a whole new level
Why They Will Lose – where is the spark coming from when the counter doesn’t work?
What Will Happen – they will win the first 20 min and the last 20 min of the game

Spain
Playing like you think you’ve already won it

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the deepest, most talented, most frustrating, entitled team
Also Known as – the new age 1998 to 2006 Brazil or the team that can win with several sub-par performances
Mea Culpa – i thought Del Bosque would do better by now
Strength – the depth of the squad
Weakness – they seem to fall asleep during the game
Team Identity – possession football
Creative Chaos – Xavi, Iniesta, David Villa, and from the bench Cesc
Spine – Alonso, Busquets, Puyol
Composure – possession football requires  excellent composure, they are currently the best in the world at it
Momentum and Consistency – this is the biggest question mark for the spanish
Health – i believe health will be brought up as an excuse if they fail to advance
Fearlessness – David Villa is throwing himself at every opportunity, Torres should watch and learn
Luck – they have gotten so far without playing real well
One Word to Describe Their Game – underwhelming
Group Stages – they thought they were entitled to win the group coming in: surprise!
Round of 16 – their best game of the world cup so far
Quarter Finals – their worst game of the world cup so far
Why They Will Win – the only way to stop them is to play them physically, 97 fouls suffered so far
Why They Will Lose – they haven’t played a ‘spanish’ game, maybe against Portugal, in a very long time
What Will Happen – if they score first they will win

Quarterfinal 1: Netherlands vs Brazil

What a doozy of a match to start the quarterfinals off with, at least on paper. Both managers have been keen to play down any hope of a classic match and perhaps I’ve fallen victim to the hype too. Winning is what this is all about and I wouldn’t be surprised if one team gets a goal, then shuts up shop and stifles the other team. There are no changes for the Dutch, while Felipe Melo does indeed start for Brazil in place of the suspended Ramires. The Dutch are at the bar early and have the best seats but now the Brazilians are pouring in. It has gotten much louder. It is good to be back for more football, this place has become home over the last 20-odd days. Ten minutes to match time, and I have to be polite and socialize.

The Dutch get us under way. I’m really pleased to see that the Dutch fans here are louder and are out in numbers.

1st half:

2nd minute: Van Persie goes down in the box, nothing given. I’m hoping this isn’t settled with a penalty or on penalties.

3rd minute: A hard challenge on Robben and Robinho gets in Van Bommel’s face. Early passion. A dive from Van Bommel a little later has the Brazilians in the crowd howling derisively.

8th minute: I wonder how loud they will be when there is an actual goal. The offside flag is late as Robinho has the ball in the net and the Brazilians are celebrating like mad but soon it’s the Dutch celebrating as the stonefaced linesman has his flag up. It’s a marginal decision but I think it’s the right one.

10th minute: Now they can indeed celebrate. It is Robinho who scores as the Dutch defense is caught sleeping by a great through ball from Felipe Melo. Robinho has plenty of time and space to hit the ball first time past the keeper. 1-0 to Brazil.

18th minute: No clear chances from the Dutch but they are not sitting back. The drums are out in force here at the bar. No prizes for guessing who the louder fans are now.

20th minute: It looks like it was Robben who played Robinho onside for the goal. Wonder what he was doing in the middle of defense.

21st minute: Netherlands’ plan seems to be to get the ball to Robben and hope for the best. They’ll need to be a little less obvious to unlock the Brazilian defense.

26th minute: Juan with a shot from a corner that goes over the bar. Brazil are doing the same thing they did against Chile: controlling the match without having too much possession. They look comfortable.

28th minute: Interesting strategy on that free kick as it seems like Gilberto Silva is marking his own teammate Juan to protect him from Van Persie’s marking. The header comes to nothing.

31st minute: Now Brazil are controlling the game in possession. Great work from Robinho and Luis Fabiano combine to set up Kaka for a curling shot that Stekelenburg saves acrobatically. Great shot, great save.

35th minute: A tricky attempt from Robben has he just lightly touches a corner and walks away from it nonchalantly but Dani Alves is wise to his move and rushes to the stationary ball. According to the The Greek, this was a trick implemented by Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs at Man Poo a couple of seasons ago.

39th minute: The fourth official is asking Dunga to calm down as a couple of calls go against his team. He was abusing the bench and Dunga’s a big man. You’ve got to feel bad for that bench.

42nd minute: This half has belonged to the Brazilians. Their attacking play, midfield holding play, defense, they look very, very good. The Dutch have not been comprehensively outplayed but Robben, Sneijder and Van Persie have been very well contained. I haven’t even seen Sneijder in the last twenty minutes. Desperate defending from the Dutch as they have almost every player in the box. Brazil’s attack swarms around with intent and get a corner that’s wasted.

46th minute: Robben wants to beat the whole defense by himself and in the end he doesn’t even get a shot off. “Pass the ball!” yell the orange shirts. The Brazilians then celebrate a shot that goes into the side netting. Most of them continue celebrating through the replay.

Half-time: The dance party has begun in the bar as the whistle blows for half-time, and really, the Brazilians on the field have danced their way through the first half with ominous ease. I don’t see a weakness in this team, with perhaps only the lack of cover for Kaka coming to mind right now. The Dutch need to change something, they have lost control of the game as the match has gone on. They are still only one goal down, though. Players like Robben, Van Persie and Sneijder need to raise their game.

It’s 8 am, and the Brazilian girls are dancing away right in front of me. I love the World Cup.

2nd half:

46th minute: A rare mistake from Brazil’s defense and Robben runs at goal but he’s crowded out before he can get a shot off. Is there life in the Dutch yet?

47th minute: Van der Wiel gets a yellow card for a dive and that means he’ll miss the semifinal if the Dutch get through.

51st minute: The Dutch are playing a high line in defense, a little dangerous as Kaka almost gets to a through ball there. More intricate passing from Brazil in the Dutch penalty area as they start the second half in the same way that they ended the first. Michel Bastos in danger of getting a second yellow.

53rd minute: It’s an own goal from Brazil! Sneijder floats in the cross after the free kick from the earlier incident and Julio Cesar is up for but Felipe Melo gets a touch on it and it goes into the net. There’s some debate whether the goal will be awarded to Sneijder. The screen says it’s an own goal now.

58th minute: Good on the Brazilians in the bar as they are still singing away. The Dutch have had the bit of luck they needed to equalize, can they now capitalize?

64th minute: A clear handball in the area but the referee misses it. Somehow the Dutch players don’t appeal for it.

68th minute: It’s 2-1 to the Dutch! Kuyt heads on a corner and this time Sneijder will claim that simple headed goal. A Brazilian weakness has been exposed: set-pieces.

71st minute: The singing has stopped.

72nd minute: If the Dutch sit back and invite Brazil onto them, they will lose. The Greek says they need to be faster in attack and defense to keep this scoreline.

74th minute: Felipe Melo had the pass for the goal but now his bad day is complete after that own goal. He stamps on Robben after a challenge and gets a straight red card. The Dutch in the bar are the ones singing now. Is everything imploding for Brazil?

75th minute: Frustration from Brazil as Robben goes down again and is yelled at by Robinho. The free kick is dangerous but Julio Cesar punches it away.

80th minute: The Nigerians texts that he’s sticking with his prediction of 3-2 to Brazil. Little optimistic as the Dutch almost carve the defense open and then have a free kick that goes over the bar.

82nd minute: So close for Brazil. A corner is floated in and flashes across the face of goal. Another one comes in, the third in succession, and the keeper saves.

85th minute: Van Persie goes off for Huntelaar. Not a great match from him but he won’t care if the Dutch hold on and win this.

88th minute: Who is going to be the hero for Brazil? The crowd expects but the Dutch look dangerous on the break. Lots of niggling fouls and bad feeling since the sending off and now Brazil have a free kick in a very promising position. Dani Alves does not even clear the wall.

91st minute: We’re into three minutes of added time. The Dutch are holding on. Can the referee keep control of this game? The tension is on the faces of both sets of players. And both sets of supporters.

93rd minute: It’s all over for Brazil as they almost concede a goal by not coming back into defense at all. They look beaten.

Full-time: And now it is officially over. The supposed champions-in-waiting, so comfortable for the first hour of this match, are out of the World Cup. That really does seem a bit unfair as the Dutch complete a smash-and-grab win. All credit to them for beating an amazing Brazilian team. The glum faces of the people in yellow shirts tell the whole story. A national weekend of mourning in Brazil. I am certainly glad I am not Felipe Melo tonight.

Phew. A little tired after that. I’m sure Ghana/Uruguay will not be as tense. Even though I predicted the Dutch winning this, I’m still utterly surprised as they were outplayed for an hour of this match. That own goal changed everything for Brazil and the sending off finished them. What a disaster from Felipe Melo, and he started so well with the assist. The own goal might be more Julio Cesar’s fault than his, but stamping on Robben while he was down on the ground was really in Sani Kaita idiocy territory and damaged his team who were already a goal down.

Rest day? What rest day?

There is no rest from the World Cup! No escape! It follows you everywhere! As the German volunteer at my work rubs it in my face about the win over England, I’m having a detailed conversation about the bad refereeing with a company higher-up that I’m usually at pains to avoid. And of course, I’m reading about the last eight teams and scouring the internet for any little tidbits: Schweinsteiger baits Maradona! Maradona mocks Schweinsteiger in a German accent! Lahm calls the Argentines cheats! Thomas Muller is the future of German football! Messi might have the flu! Brazil don’t have a midfield! Dunga ignores Cruyff’s comments about his team! Sneijder and Van Persie don’t like each other!

It’s all a bit silly of course, and the press, having no actual matches to report on, will naturally build every little thing up into more than what it is. I have to say though that it’s always entertaining to hear Maradona talk and I’m a little surprised that the Germans are saying all these nasty things. Before the England game it was all mutual respect diplomacy but here they are trying to get to the Argentine team with uncharacteristic head games. The bad blood stems from that fiery quarterfinal four years ago that ended in a mass brawl after Germany’s penalty shootout victory. It might get ugly on Saturday.

El Pastor has spoken and as usual he says many wise things, most of which I can’t help but agree with. Considering I have to go to bed to get up for the Brazil/Netherlands match, I’ll try and keep my predictions/analysis somewhat short. But you know how it is, Mufti loves to talk.

Brazil vs Netherlands: This is a quarterfinal I had predicted before the World Cup began, and I’ll stick with my prediction of a narrow Dutch win. I will additionally predict that the winner of this match will go on to win the World Cup. I want a classic match but I don’t expect one because both teams play similar systems and the game could get bogged down in an overcrowded midfield. Why I could be right: The Dutch will control the midfield in the absence through injury or suspension of Elano, Julio Baptista, Ramires and possibly Felipe Melo. Kaka has not been at his best and Dunga does not have an adequate replacement for him in the squad. And as Brazilian great Tostao has pointed out, Michel Bastos is isolated on the left side of defense and that’s where Arjen Robben will attack. Why I could be wrong: Brazil are extremely solid at the back and had no trouble defending against Chile’s Alexis Sanchez on the left side. The midfield will cope (Melo might be fit after all) and Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano is a combination that could hit it off at any moment. Van Persie and Sneijder are having difficulties as the age old ego problems are beginning to surface in the Dutch camp.

Uruguay vs Ghana: This is a tough one to call because I want both these teams to progress. A Uruguay vs Brazil semifinal has a nice historical ring about it, and seeing an African team in the semis for the first time would be beautiful. My verdict? A close win for Uruguay, 1-0 or 2-1, possibly in extra time. Why I could be right: Uruguay look like they have the winning habit since their second match against South Africa (3-0 win). They were dominated by the South Koreans for long periods of their second round match but ultimately won with a combination of solid defense and good midfield play. When they needed to chase the win, their big name players Forlan and Suarez came to the fore. Without Essien, Ghana don’t have anyone like that. Why I could be wrong: Ghana have the whole of Africa behind them, like Pastor said, and played very well against an admittedly ragged USA team in the first half of that match. Gyan seems confident and capable of finishing well from anywhere in the box, and they still have Sulley Muntari in reserve. Uruguay should be alarmed at the way they sat back against South Korea, eventually conceding.

Argentina vs Germany: With all the trash talk in the last two days, the game itself might well be a downer. But I refuse to think it will be, and will go ahead and predict a classic, hard-fought, back-and-forth match that Argentina emerge from, bloodied and bruised, as victors in extra time, 3 goals to 2. Why I could be right: Germany don’t usually denigrate opponents in this manner and I’m sensing a bit of nervousness in the squad. Argentina look very relaxed and the three-man offense of Higuain, Messi and Tevez looks unstoppable. Manuel Neuer in the German goal looks uncertain and has very few caps and the rest of the defense is a little slow. Why I could be wrong: Two names: German attacking midfielder Mesut Ozil and Argentine defender Martin Demichelis.

Spain vs Paraguay: The easiest of the quarterfinals to predict. Spain 2-0 over Paraguay, with Torres scoring a silly goal that’s not worthy of his name, meaning he’ll keep his place for the semifinal, meaning Spain will waste 60 minutes of the match with him on the field and immediately play better when he’s subbed, by which time it will be too late. Del Bosque needs to get over his love affair with Torres and start with a different striker or change the system to include Fabregas. But I digress. Why I could be right: I am right. Why I could be wrong: I won’t be wrong. If I am, the Pastor and I promise to move to Vermont and get married.

Eight teams left, seven meaningful and one meaningless match left. Looking forward to watching every minute.

JABULANI REX!

the funny thing about the whole projection business is the constant second guessing. if you look at my initial prediction, i went straight for instinct as in i didn’t put too much thought into it. i had Spain, Germany, Netherlands and Mexico as my final four… the only reason i had Mexico was that i thought they would win the Uruguay matchup and roll over a weakened England (they turned out to be weaker than i expected). naturally i was wrong about the matchup and we might see Uruguay in the final four instead. not bad for basic instincts, right? mine that is, not the movie. for the second prediction post i tried to reason the unreasonable and the result was a massive failure in my opinion. i knew it as soon as i posted it. Chile wasn’t going to beat Brazil (more on why i keep picking against Brazil in a second), the Paraguay – Japan game was a crapshoot and i’m asian, and the USA – Ghana game was decided by my wife, she isn’t ghanaian so there’s the pick. my thought for the supposed Japan – Spain game was all about the matchup – Spain has been struggling against a well coached, technically proficient teams (the Swiss did it). you bet Del Bosque is begging for Argentina in the semis instead of Germany. finally the Brazil – Netherlands game, as i said in the first predictions post i don’t see any major pitfalls in the (not-so) brazilian game, and i hate that. one coronation of a dark lord and his minions in a football year is enough, i don’t want them to win so much i will pick anybody against them just because. how confident am i the Netherlands have this game? not as confident as i am of a Brazil victory. how much will i cheer for the Oranje to win? my voice will be hoarse.

now at the request of Mufti and with little time to spare between meals, family reunions, tourism, traffic, and six hours of public electricity a day here are my quick overviews of each matchup in a new format.
Uruguay – Ghana
instinct – i said Forlan had golden boot written all over him but it’s Suarez that is taking advantage of all the attention opposing defenses are giving Sexy Diego. Uruguay plays beautiful football and are part of one of the most successful world cups for south american teams ever. i love the ghanaians. they are playing with all of africa behind them, next to them, in front of them, all over them, this is a team of destiny now.
reason – Uruguay haven’t played anybody like the ghanaians yet. actually they haven’t played anybody but the mexicans. i thought they could beat the americans because the americans couldn’t hold that offense back but the ghanaians are a very strong defensive team. i can see this game turning into a goal fest or a penalty shootout. both teams do something really really well and both are inconsistent… something has got to give.
expectation – who scores first, wins.
Argentina – Germany
instinct – this game was set from the time the world cup groups were drawn. i doubt anybody had it otherwise. Argentina are playing better than i expected them to. Germany are playing as expected, they still dominated in the spine of the Serbia game despite playing with ten men. Mufti, you and i have different perspectives on this game. there’s a lot to doubt in the argentinians and the germans but both have certainly exceeded expectations in style.
reason – there is no reasoning history… two world cup finals, different styles, aggressive play, one iconic figure on the sidelines…
expectation – this is the first of two amazing quarter final matchups: argentinian instinct versus german reason… oooh what a tough one to call: Germany, Muller makes sure Maradona recognizes him this time.
Brazil – Netherlands
instinct – Brazil. there i said it. my instinct is Brazil will win. no, no they won’t! my instinct says the Netherlands will win it. AAHH! this is another game of opposing styles. these two teams always play each other very well and always give us entertaining games. i expect more of the same.
reason – this is the same reasoned breakdown as the Inter – Bayern game. and as i said in that game, i would love Bayern to win but Inter is just too strong in every facet. the same is true here. Brazil is strong everywhere. they make few mistakes, which is not true of the dutch.
expectation – this is the first game of the quarter finals so whatever mind numbing shit i’ve been saying about it for the last three weeks will finally be resolved… this game won’t be won by creativity. whoever makes the least mistakes wins.
Spain – Paraguay
instinct – i would be absolutely shocked if the spanish lose this game.
reason – i would be absolutely shocked if the spanish lose this game.
expectation – Paraguay wins, just because i am ready to be shocked… not really.

Second Round Match 54: Brazil vs Chile

Quite a paltry crowd here compared to the other Brazil matches, surprisingly. A sprinkling of neutrals are here hoping that Chile can do something against the supposed champions-in-waiting. Their task is made all the harder as they are missing three first choice players through suspension: Estrada, Medel and Ponce. They will be looking to expose the left hand side of Brazil’s defense via Alexis Sanchez who has looked really good so far in this World Cup. They have speed on the flanks, Chile, but they themselves have to be careful if Michel Bastos and Maicon launch counterattacks for Brazil. Ramires and Dani Alves are starting for Brazil in place of the injured duo of Felipe Melo and Elano.

1st half:

1st minute: Ooooh. Hottie Howard Webb is officiating. Very distracting.

4th minute: Chile start the better and have an early corner and Beausejour and Sanchez make forays on both flanks. Then Luis Fabiano is released but shoots horribly wide. Not the kind of finishing Brazilians are known for. The crowd has grown but seem slightly nervous after Brazil’s unimpressive start.

9th minute: Brazil threaten and Chile defend deeply. Two corners, and a powerful shot from Gilberto Silva saved by the keeper.

24th minute: A tight contest so far with both teams creating but lacking that final, telling ball to really open up a defense. Long range strikes from both teams, with Brazil’s on target, Chile’s not.

27th minute: As a corner comes in, Lucio falls dramatically as he’s challenged in the box. There was contact but Hottie Howard is not convinced.

30th minute: An early yellow card for Kaka, and it is deserved. Chile have a free kick in a dangerous area but it is hit into the wall. Poor execution. I wonder if Kaka will now be targeted.

34th minute: Not a Brazilian goal but still a goal. The corner comes in and Juan towers above everyone to head it in. Great header.

38th minute: Now that’s how they like to score. Robinho and Kaka combine perfectly to release Luis Fabiano in the area who rounds the keeper and slots in with ease. Chile have faded since their bright start and are not playing as well as they did against Spain. They are now down 2-0 and are facing yet another loss against Brazil, a team they have never beaten.

Half-time: Marcelo Bielsa, proud Argentine in charge of this Chile team, is fuming on the bench. I would not want to be a Chilean player facing him in the dressing room as the half finishes with Brazil 2-0 up on Chile. Brazil took a little time to get going but once they did, they looked unstoppable. There’s every chance of them now facing the Netherlands in the quarterfinals. Chile’s attack is not clicking like it did in the last few matches

2nd half:

54th minute: Chile have started brightly again but continue to have trouble getting through the defense or getting any touches in the penalty area. They are also exposing themselves on the counterattack as Kaka’s ball almost reaches Robinho as he races into the area.

58th minute: Chile are hit on a devastating counterattack and are now down 3-0. Ramires picks up the ball in midfield, makes a great run into the box and passes for Robinho to hit it first time into the corner. Lovely. Chile only looking for consolations now.

65th minute: Chile are still trying, four players pass the ball around in the box but none of them able to get a shot off. There is still plenty of time but Chile haven’t been able to score from the opportunities they create.

75th minute: Chile finally force Julio Cesar into a save as Suazo takes a shot. Robinho had just had a shot saved too from another Brazilian counterattack.

80th minute: Nothing working for Chile as a Suazo lobs comes off the top of the crossbar. Kaka comes off for Kleberson. Good news for the Dutch: third goal creator Ramires is suspended for the quarterfinal after he picks up a yellow card.

85th minute: Beausejour’s turn to shoot wide for Chile. It’s rough on them, this loss, they are a good team to watch.

Full-time: As expected, Brazil are just too strong for this talented Chilean team who once again were unable to finish the chances they had. Brazil’s defense looked much tighter this time, an ominous sign for the Netherlands. My prediction for a 1-0 Dutch win looks a little optimistic but I still think the Dutch will go through. No matter what the result, that is a match I am very much looking forward to.

Next up, Paraguay vs Japan at 7 am. I don’t expect a big crowd. Spain vs Portugal will then fight out the last of the second round matches before two days of well-earned rest for the players. And for me!

The Mufti Predicts: Chaos and Carnage!

The Pastor has insisted that I redo my predictions for this second round. He’s very demanding, even at this great distance, and I don’t have the willpower to deny him what he wants. Otherwise, he might send Supercat after me. Wonder where he’s been this whole World Cup? Not to worry, I don’t feel like he’s going to make an imminent appearance, although I do blame him for that waitress not liking me any more. Ah, such is the lot of lonely Mufti. You think it’s the turban and beard combination?

Before I jump headlong (I always jump headlong but this time it’s with more force!) and wade into the morass of predictions, I’d like to get this off my chest. Fellow World Cup blogger Chris Ross has a good article about Frank Lampard’s non-goal in the match against Germany (oh, the agony!) and what he felt to be its massive impact. While I think Chris makes a valid point, I wrote this in reply to his comment:

Thanks for the praise, Chris. Just read your article, well-written as well, and you make a crucial point about that goal. Capello was keen to point that out in his interview after the match, and yes, momentum and confidence-wise it was a big turning point. But, and I in turn cannot emphasize this enough, England were extremely slow in defense and Capello, who had to be aware of the counter-attacking danger from the Germans in the situation England found themselves in, did not make any tactical or personnel changes to nullify the threat. He stuck with the 4-4-2, made like-for-like substitutions (although not sure what Joe Cole’s role really was) and Barry’s coverage play did not improve. Why not throw Carrick on? Why not put Joe Cole on the left, push Gerrard up the middle instead of bring on Heskey? You need goals and Heskey comes on? Earth to Fabio: Heskey does NOT score!

Anyway, I could go on and on (and already have) but I’m too gutted to really be of much argumentative use. I think there needs to be a massive change in the training methods of English youth and a push to prioritize the national team which I feel is at a disadvantage to the English club game. Without that, England will fail like this in major international tournaments time and again, no matter what magic dust they feel a foreign coach with a lot of experience can sprinkle over players who fail at the basics of the sport. The Germans may not be miles (or in this case, 4-1) better than England but on the night, they were. They passed the ball well, took their chances well, and controlled the match even when not in possession. Nothing spectacular; just good football. I look forward to checking out more of your opinion of the other matches.

I know I went on a bit there, but I think I’ll just stop talking about that now.

Despite my predicting more results correctly than Pastor, he does win out on the number of qualifiers he predicted for the second round, getting 12 correct to my 11. I told you he was good. I had little faith in USA while he had little in Slovakia and too much in Italy. I had too much on the African teams, who let me down badly (I had Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa going through). Despite having seen all the teams play now, I’m going to stick with what I predicted beforehand for the unchanged matchups. Here we go:

Match 1: Uruguay vs South Korea

My original matchup was Mexico/Nigeria with Nigeria winning in extra time (African teams have a habit of going to extra time). As it was, I predicted 2-1 to Uruguay before the match and that’s how it turned out to be.

Match 2: USA vs Ghana

As England did not win their group and we failed to see France emerge from theirs, this side of the bracket had an unfamiliar look to it. I predicted Ghana to win it 1-0 in extra time, and they did it 2-1 in extra time. However, I sincerely believed, like the Pastor, that the Americans were capable of better. On the night, the psychological toll of conceding twice (which to be fair were very good goals) did for them in the end.

Match 3: Germany vs England

This was originally Germany vs Slovenia, and I had only gone for a 2-1 German win. I predicted England to take this 2-0 in the second half. Now I don’t know why and as I said, I don’t want to talk about it.

Match 4: Argentina vs Mexico

I was surprised the hosts South Africa did not qualify. As it was, I saw them being beaten here 3-1 by Argentina, and Argentina subjected Mexico to the same scoreline. In my opinion, there was a bit of luck heading the way of the Argentines in this game, and now they get to meet the other team that has had some luck, Germany. Should be a cracker.

Match 5: Netherlands vs Slovakia

I had this matchup already predicted at 2-0 and I’ll stick by it. The Dutch haven’t been tested by a big team yet, and so I expect them to play similarly to their group stage matches and grind out a win. But if there’s an upset on the cards in this round, it might just be Slovakia who played very well against Italy but weren’t that good against New Zealand or Paraguay. Depends on which Slovakia turns up.

Match 6: Brazil vs Chile

Again, I’d already predicted 4-1 Brazil win for this fixture. I don’t think Brazil will beat them by that much but Chile will be missing three suspended defensive players. They are quite good on the counter but have had difficulty scoring. I’ll be rooting for them but I think Brazil will be too strong.

Match 7: Paraguay vs Japan

Japan are really the surprise of the tournament so far for me. The Pastor has faith in them to go to the semifinals. I will snigger derisively at this and predict, okay, I won’t, because I think he might just be right. I originally had Cameroon winning 2-0 over Paraguay and this time I’ll go for Japan with the same scoreline.

Match 8: Spain vs Portugal

This turned out the same and I predicted a victory for Portugal via penalty kicks. I’ll stick by this and here’s why: Portugal have yet to concede and were defensively very solid in qualifying too. Spain will get frustrated although if Alonso is not fit and Fabregas comes in, that might change things. Del Bosque has been conservative and I fear that he’ll stick with his system and bring in Javi Martinez in place of Alonso. If Torres continues to misfire, this might be very tight, go to penalties and as Casillas is not his imperious Euro 2008 self, Portugal will go on to a quarterfinal against Japan.

Speaking of which, real quick quarterfinals predictions: Uruguay 1  Ghana 1, Uruguay winning on penalties,  Argentina vs Germany I had Argentina winning on penalties. I’ll actually change this one and have Argentina winning 3-2 instead in the match of the tournament. Portugal to beat Japan 2-0, and the Netherlands to overcome Brazil 1-0. The Dutch will continue on their inexorable run to the final by defeating Uruguay 3-1 while Argentina will unlock that Portuguese defense with a 3-0 win. And my final remains the same, Netherlands overcoming Argentina 2-1. Messi will have to wait until 2014.

Matchday 15: Portugal vs Brazil & North Korea vs Ivory Coast

Lots of changes in Portugal team as they have perhaps already qualified. Ivory Coast start with intent in the other game; they need boatloads of goals. For Brazil, Robinho is rested, Nilmar coming in, and Dani Alves is handed his first start in place of Elano, who I think is still hurt. Julio Baptista, the other “Beast”, takes the place of the suspended Kaka. I was a bit late coming in but my amazing bartender reserved a spot for me. Pretty decent crowd considering it’s 7 am, but not as big or loud as for the last match.

1st halves:

14th minute: They have been attacking incessantly and Ivory Coast are now ahead 1-0 via Yaya Toure. They only need six more. Easy.

17th minute: Brazil have started much better. Still not convinced by some of the choices Carlos Quieroz makes. Simao is left on the bench again in place of Danny. There is an excellent attempt from Tiago though. He played well against North Korea, getting those two goals.

20th minute: And now it’s 2-0. The massacre is on as Drogba hits the bar and the rebound is headed in by Romaric. Five more.

24th minute: Juan is booked for Brazil for a blatant handball. Duda is booked for his insistence that Juan be shown a red card. Feels odd to write that name. I definitely gave a red card to the ex-girlfriend who happens to be a namesake of the Portuguese player.

30th minute: Brazil/Portugal comes alive a bit as a Brazil shot is turned onto the post by the goalkeeper and Portugal go up the other end where Tiago falls in the box and is booked for a rather pretty dive. I’ve actually calculated that the Ivory Coast need a nine goal swing. As it stands, they will be going out in third place.

38th minute: Gervinho flashes a shot just wide for Ivory Coast. The North Koreans have survived after that poor start but how long can they hold out? It is strange that the team chasing goals is managed by Sven-Goran Eriksson, hardly renowned for being an attacking coach.

42nd minute: Portugal defending deeply just like they did against Ivory Coast. Brazil keep coming, and the Brazilian supporters here is thirsty for a goal. Another yellow in what is surprisingly a very physical game.

45th minute: Early substitution for Brazil as Felipe Melo is taken off. He’s on a yellow and I think that’s a precautionary measure from Dunga. The referee has been extremely card happy as another Portuguese player is shown a yellow.

Half-time: 2-0 to Ivory Coast and 0-0 in Portugal vs Brazil. Ivory Coast started really well and I thought they might go in 4-0 or 5-0 up at the half but North Korea have tightened up. Brazil/Portugal has been a match littered with yellow cards, very physical and a bit bad-tempered. This Brazil team is in the image of its coach in more ways than one; they get angry. Portugal have had to defend deeply at times but Brazil haven’t had more than two clear cut opportunities.

60th minute: The Brazilians are really frustrated in the crowd here and on the field in Durban. They were just about get even more so as Meireles is guilty of a really bad miss after a surging run into the box from Cristiano Ronaldo. Portugal should be up 1-0 but they have survived. In the other match, the North Koreans are doing better on the counterattack and it’s still 2-0. Ivory Coast’s offense is not clicking.

75th minute: Both second halves have been disappointing. I just tried to induce a goal by going to the bathroom. It didn’t work. Lots of sloppy play from Brazil and Portugal haven’t really been all that aggressive. They could scare the Brazilians by doing so but are too afraid of conceding.

80th minute: There are 10 minutes left and Brazil are not happy with a 0-0 draw. The Ivorian players have looks of disappointment on their faces as the rain comes down. North Korea on the counter and Jong Tae-Se has two shots at goal and they are both blocked. Should have scored.

82nd minute: Kalou goes up the other end and scores. It’s 3-0 to Ivory Coast. Too late though, I fear.

84th minute: Brazil have conceded late goals in both their games but it’s Portugal who are trying to waste time.

86th minute: Ivory Coast have the ball in the back of the net but it is offside.

90th minute: The North Korean goalie has taken a lot of punishment in this game. I think this is the third time Myong-Guk is receiving treatment. Five minutes of added time in both matches.

92nd minute: Best chance of the second half for Brazil as Ramires’ long range shot is saved acrobatically.

95th minute: The World Cup is over for another African team. Ghana are the only team from the hosting continent to make it to the second round. A disappointing showing, especially from Cameroon and Ivory Coast; I expected a lot better. I also expected a lot better from Brazil/Portugal. Match is petering out.

Full-time: Disappointing matches both. I expected the Ivorians to score a lot more after their blistering first 20 minutes but the North Koreans started to play better and had a better second half. Brazil vs Portugal was disappointing on many accounts: Brazil looked disjointed in attack and missed Kaka and Elano, Portugal were negative even if they created the best chance of the match and were happy to play for the draw. As it is, I did predict a draw in this game so I think my lead is now unassailable. Take that, Pastor! You people have no idea how long poor Mufti has been waiting to get even this small victory over his nemesis Pastor. And yes, in moments of such triumph, he does tend to switch to the third person. Don’t ask why.

Two and half hours to Switzerland vs Honduras and Spain vs Chile. Switzerland in my mind don’t deserve to go through but I think they will unless Honduras can do something to restore some pride. Spain and Chile are the teams I want to see in the second round but I fear that Chile or maybe even Spain will pay for their profligacy in front of goal as three teams ending up on six points is a real possibility in this tight group. If the Swiss manage to score a few times against Honduras, they will be through on goal difference with the winner of the Spain/Chile match. That would be the first time a team with six points has been eliminated in the World Cup since they switched to three points for a win. Chile’s coach Bielsa has promised to keep his attacking lineup so we might finally see a more open game and after Brazil vs Portugal, I need that.

Match 29: Brazil vs Ivory Coast

A cracking atmosphere in the bar for this one, just what you would expect from a Samba crowd on a Sunday. I just hope that there’s a cracking game to live up to the crowd’s expectations. I’m at the bar with some underdog-supporting Americans but I don’t think I’m really cheering for either team here, only for a good match. None of the other major matchups have lived up to their billing so far, with the best games provided by unexpected teams like Denmark, Slovenia and USA. All credit to them for throwing caution to the wind and playing football instead of the cagey affairs we’ve seen, like the Ivory Coast vs Portugal match. Ivory Coast were better in that game and if this World Cup continues to throw up surprises they could draw or even win this match against Brazil. But if anyone is capable of resuming normal service, it is Brazil. They need a big performance out of Kaka, who will be harried and harassed in midfield and a much better showing from Luis Fabiano, who was ineffective against North Korea. Ivory Coast can play a bit so I’m hoping for an open game. I’d be very disappointed if they sat back and soaked up pressure; with Eriksson as the coach, that’s always a possibility. The only change in either team from their previous line ups is Didier Drogba starting for Ivory Coast. He still has a cast on his arm. Gervinho, who looked good against Portugal, is the player to make way. He might be a good impact sub if Drogba can’t last the distance. I’m ready for this one and so is the crowd as the drumming starts up behind me. Apart from the Americans, this is the most passionate fanbase I’ve seen here as everyone stands and sings the national anthem along with the television. Love it.

1st half:

1st minute: An early run and shot by Robinho has this place in raptures. It’s over the bar from some way out.

12th minute: Interesting beginning. Ivory Coast are surprisingly being quite successful at keeping the ball and look confident and relaxed. Drogba stands over a free kick and skies it miles above the bar. Poor.

24th minute: Simple really. Kaka sets Luis Fabiano free and he makes no mistake in putting his shot into the roof of the net from an angle. 1-0 to Brazil. I can’t hear myself type.

35th minute: Ivory Coast started out okay but since the goal it’s been all Brazil. No clear opportunities but they are looking comfortable as Ivory Coast retreat a little bit.

38th minute: He may have provided the assist but Kaka needs to improve. A promising Brazil attack breaks down as his pass is wayward and then he finds himself in the way of Robinho.

41st minute: Ivory Coast have got back into it slightly. Eboue let’s fly from 20 yards but finds only the side netting. There’s a deflection but the referee misses it and Brazil get a goal kick.

Half-time: Comfortable for Brazil. They look well-organized at the back and have kept Ivory Coast at bay without much trouble. There are still question marks over Kaka going forward; he does not seem to be on the same wavelength as his teammates. He did provide the beautifully weighted through ball for Luis Fabiano to score but Brazil will be looking for more from him. Ivory Coast have looked good in midfield possession but apart from wayward crosses from the flanks hoping for a touch from Drogba, they haven’t created much. At this rate, they don’t look likely to get back into the game. (I see a woman wearing a Gremio jersey in the crowd. Nice.)

2nd half:

50th minute: They make it look so easy. Luis Fabiano fights for the ball that comes over the top, gets it, one touch, shoots, scores. A hint of handball as he juggles the ball in the air but a good goal. The goalkeeper can only help the ball into the net, might have done better there.

54th minute: Brazil give Drogba a bit too much space in the box and he heads the ball just wide of the far post. Ivory Coast can still get back into this.

58th minute: Interesting image there as the referee with a big grin on his face is seen asking Luis Fabiano about a possible handball and Fabiano shaking his head. Seeing the replay, there’s at least one, if not two, handballs by Fabiano before he scores. Unlucky for Ivory Coast but I’m confused as to why the referee didn’t blow the whistle if he thought there was a handball. What’s the point of asking the offending player afterward? As if he’s going to admit to anything.

62nd minute: No hands involved there. A lovely cutback from Kaka and there’s Elano to sweep it in. It’s all over for Ivory Coast as Brazil lead 3-0. Much better from Kaka, much better from Brazil.

67th minute: Goalscorer Elano is off injured. On comes Dani Alves. Dani Alves from the bench. What talent on this squad.

74th minute: A few threats from Ivory Coast but the body language is negative. Brazil taking potshots at the goal now as everyone looks to join the party. Horrible foul from Keita and Michel Bastos is down on the ground in pain. Yellow card for sure.

78th minute: “Ole, ole, ole” chants the crowd at each successful Brazilian pass. Pinging the ball around for fun now, Brazil. What are we thinking here? 4-0, 5-0?

79th minute: Wait a second. Gervinho goes on an amazing run but as he shapes to shoot, he’s forced wide. He sends the pass back and Yaya Toure’s ball forward catches the Brazil defense in static mode. An easy header for Drogba and it’s 3-1. Dunga won’t be happy with the lapse in concentration from his players. Crowd’s not happy either, a crescendo of boos rings out. What’s this? Mum, I’m watching the World Cup! Don’t call me now!

84th minute: “3-3” I say to my cohorts and am greeted with derisive laughter. As I should. Hm, bit of a tiff there as Kaka pushes an Ivory Coast player. It’s a yellow card for him.

87th minute: Now it’s Tiote in the book from Ivory Coast. Some tempers flaring out there.

88th minute: Is it going to be a second yellow for Kaka? It is! Keita makes a complete meal of that. There’s really not much in it, there’s a big melee and the referee has the second yellow card out. That’s two in two minutes and Kaka is off. Pretty ridiculous all this and very unnecessary from Ivory Coast. Brazil down to 10 men but still ahead 3-1.

91st minute: It was more like 4 minutes between the two yellows for Kaka. The first was definitely deserved but the second, Keita runs into Kaka and goes down clutching his face. Utterly shameless and disgraceful from Keita. I feel a Hoof Award in the offing for him. We are in three minutes of added time.

94th minute: The last kick of the game is a free kick to Brazil. Comes to nothing, and Brazil win but not without a little damage in the shape of that goal and the sending off.

Full-time: Kaka was having a good game and that horrendous piece of play-acting from Keita has undone his day. He misses the game against Portugal unless Brazil are successful on appeal, which I doubt. As far as the football goes, Brazil looking good and two key players that had question marks over them have proven themselves, Luis Fabiano with two goals and Kaka with two assists. Dunga has to shore up his defense a little bit and now has to work to lift his key player Kaka so he isn’t psychologically affected by his sending off. This referee might be in line for some negative comments, he’s not had the best game. Ivory Coast have North Korea to play next, who play Portugal tomorrow in the last of the 4 30 am games. For me, it’s going to be bed here very soon but it looks like the Brazilians here are going to party long and hard. And yes, I will call my mother. Get off my back, Pastor.

Match 14: Brazil vs North Korea

I was just checking the stats from older World Cups, and this is the lowest number of goals for the first 13 games, at least since 1994. Back then, the first thirteen games yielded 32 goals, as they did in 1998 which was the first World Cup with the current number of 32 nations. In 2002, the number was inflated to 37, mostly due to Germany’s 8-0 mauling of Saudi Arabia, and in the last World Cup, the number was 30. This World Cup: 20 goals in the first thirteen games.

So with that in mind, I suppose Brazil have to put at least 10 past North Korean goalie Myong-Guk Ri to catch up a little bit with those numbers. Do we trust in Robinho, Kaká, Luis Fabiano to do the job? I think yes. Unless there’s some secret North Korean operative here in a yellow shirt, this bar is very Brazilian right now. Neutrals love to support the team too of course, always citing the style. Dunga’s style’s been criticized recently and this game won’t be no more than a warm-up. I don’t think they’ll have any difficulties against Portugal but with a fitter Didier Drogba on hand, Ivory Coast might give them a little more to think about.

About to start here: Julio Cesar hat trick!

First half:

8th minute: A couple of long-range attempts from Robinho and Elano have the crowd a little excited. The voluble Brazilian standing next to me shouting in my ear is very, very unhappy already.

11th minute: Wow, a North Korean shot on goal. Jong Tae-se, him of the promises of a goal per game, dribbled past three Brazilians (how odd to write that) but in the end his shot was tame. The Brazilians in the bar are baying for a goal. The one next to me is exacerbating the tinnitus in my left ear.

22nd minute: The Pastor notes that the cold might effect the Brazilians. A wayward pass from Kaka and the bar goes quiet. It has to happen, right?

25th minute: It’s not happening for Kaka. Another wayward pass and a promising move breaks down. Anybody whisper Ronaldinho?

33rd minute: Another run from Jong down the right and North Korea have a corner. It comes to nothing but a long range shot skids past Julio Cesar’s right post. These guys have been impressive.

40th minute: Sustained Brazilian pressure but no shots on goal. My friend here says, “Kaka no play good well.” I have to agree.

Half-time: The North Koreans retreated into their shell after some early, speculative forays, but the Brazilians have been restricted to long range shots that have been way off target. I think Myung-Guk has had only one real save to make. Maybe it is the cold. I can’t believe it, but it is 0-0. The Brazilians in the bar are still pretty cheerful with a little drum circle at a table behind me. Nobody dancing on the tables. Yet.

2nd half:

55th minute: Finally, finally, the Brazilians score, and it is a beauty from Maicon. He charges up the right and somehow hits into the net from what seems like an impossible angle. Did he mean that? I think he did. That’s the way to use that Jabulani. The North Koreans really couldn’t have held on any longer but they have been very impressive.

70th minute: North Korea looking quite tired now. Training camp in Zimbabwe perhaps not the best idea. Brazil have stepped off the gas a bit but they want more.

72nd minute: They get their wish. Excellent pass from Robinho and a neat finish from Elano. He’s substituted right after with Dani Alves coming on. North Koreans won’t have much time for a breather. Wonder if the Dear Leader is apoplectic with rage.

78th minute: Kaka is off, and he gets booed by the bar. Not a classic from the Real Madrid man. Nilmar comes on in his place. In the meantime, I’m deaf in my left ear and my left arm is covered in spit from my excitable friend.

89th minute: Amazing scenes. A ball comes over the top, flicked on, and North Korea have scored against Brazil! And now they’re going for it! Two shots, both off target. A good shot too from Ji for the goal.

Full-time: What a game. Fully absorbing at least, even if lacking in the quality that’s been continuously missing at this Cup. And really strange to hear North Korea being cheered on in an American bar. Those Americans, they love their underdogs. 2-1 to Brazil, but the North Koreans can be very proud.

Phew. At least some of that late drama that makes football so special. Tomorrow then: the last of the big names play, Spain against Switzerland. Honduras vs Chile is the early game and later on, the second round of group games begins with the hosts South Africa taking on Uruguay. More, give me more!

Predicting…injuries for everyone!

El Pastor, your prediction post is stellar work indeed. I have to admit that your breakdown of what it takes to win a World Cup is something I wholeheartedly agree with. The World Cup is ostensibly the pinnacle of the sport, the best of the world getting together to decide who wins. But at the risk of exposing myself as the cynical bastard that I truly am, I am going to make some sweeping statements that probably won’t hold up under further scrutiny. (Stop scrutinizing, Pastor.) To be sure, it’s a great tournament, and I’ll be peeing myself with excitement as I sit in a dingy bar at 7 am on June 11th. But is it really what it claims to be, the best of the best?

You make a great point about fitness, being fit enough to play seven games in a month at the end of long domestic seasons. And a lot of the best players that this World Cup might have seen have already crumbled. Some of these players held a big sway over their teams; they were the undoubted stars: Essien, Drogba. Some were integral parts of the coaches plan and they would have been definite starters if available, but the team can move on without them: Ferdinand, Ballack, Nani. And then there are the players nearing fitness, players that haven’t played a game in a few weeks, players that are just getting back to the levels they were capable of: Ashley Cole, Gareth Barry, Miroslav Klose, etcetera. It is sad to be without these players because they are the reason you watch the World Cup. Perhaps with all these players missing, it really isn’t the greatest collection of talent the World Cup has seen in recent times.

But I actually do agree with you. There aren’t really any big teams that failed to make the World Cup this time around (Guus Hiddink’s Russia might be the only exception). We have strong coaches leading even the smaller teams. Despite those missing above, we have players on a majority of teams that are capable of changing games, scoring sometimes the only goal needed for progress. It really does come down to moments then, as it always does. And in my mind, that’s the danger, the lurking scepter of Euro 2004 and Greece. I will not begrudge them their victory in that tournament, they fought for it and won it. But did the best team win that tournament? Absolutely not. Could that happen in South Africa? Absolutely. That is tournament football, when it comes down to those moments. That uncertainty is what makes the World Cup special but it also means that unfortunately the best team does not always win.

I seem to be talking myself into circles. Perhaps I should take off this turban. It’s hot in here, I’m thinking too hard. On to my predictions for the World Cup then, considering you’ve forced my hand. I’m going to make it slightly harder on my already overtaxed neurons and go ahead and predict scores as well. My nerdy Excel spreadsheet will then spit out the results and surprise even me.

[I have just returned from the end of this post using my time-travelling turban and read this on the BBC. Looks like not many people are picking the team I picked to win the World Cup! Bah to them! What do they know?][Looks like at least two people on Soccernet know what we are banging on about, though.]