i still know who will win the world cup

Mufti and i had an extensive conversation yesterday regarding the semi-finalists and the world cup as a whole. we talked ourselves in circles regarding who would win what matchup, whether our predictions were any good, and whether this world cup is the best ever. we amicably agreed that this was the best world cup – so far – of our conscious lifetime. it has a little of everything and a whole lot of drama.

before the world cup we predicted and i ended up with three of four. none of the four teams in the semi-finals or who they beat to get there surprises me. several people had Spain, no surprise there. few had the germans, including their own. even fewer had the dutch, considering the potential clash with the former ‘Dunga kings’. hardly anybody had Uruguay – my consolation: i had the right group but the wrong team. what is surprising to everyone though is the style each team got to the semi-finals.

in the spirit of over-analyzing the shit out of this on my first full day back, here is the Pastor approved world cup semi-final gibberish.

Netherlands
Paving the yellow brick road

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the pre-tournament world champions
Also Known as – the team that gives me, as a Real Madrid fan, major heartburn
Mea Culpa – the only time i had doubts about them winning was right after the Brazil goal when they looked exposed
Strength – several sources of creativity
Weakness – they leave themselves exposed in defense at times
Team Identity – adaptability
Creative Chaos – Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie
Spine – Van Bronckhorst, Van Bommel, De Jong
Composure – 12 yellow cards so far but none compromising yet…
Momentum and Consistency – 24 game unbeaten streak
Health – Van Persie and Mathisjen are supposedly fit…
Fearlessness – can we just agree to call the second half against Brazil fearless?
Luck – the first goal by Brazil was deemed offside… considering the refereeing at the world cup that’s awfully lucky
One Word to Describe Their Game – adaptable
Group Stages – clinical
Round of 16 – easy
Quarter Finals – inspired
Why They Will Win – they can play different styles of football and they make very few mistakes
Why They Will Lose – they’re my pick to win it all
What Will Happen – they are the most aggressive team left in the world cup: 82 fouls committed. they will beat the win out of Uruguay

Uruguay
Whatever it takes

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the inconsistent team with a very high potential
Also Known as – the team missing a lot of components
Mea Culpa – i have had a crush on this team for a while but liked Mexico a bit more because i lived there
Strength – set pieces
Weakness – they tend to let their opponents dictate the game
Team Identity – maximize opportunities
Creative Chaos – Forlan, Suarez, Lodeiro
Spine – Arevalo, Perez and Pereira
Composure – two players attempted to stop the ball with their hands on the last play in extra time against Ghana, that’s what i call a competitive presence of mind
Momentum and Consistency – i wonder if they might be spent from the emotional rollercoaster quarter-final
Health – Luis Suarez isn’t unhealthy but he isn’t playing either
Fearlessness – Luis Suarez
Luck – Asamoah Gyan
One Word to Describe Their Game – blunt
Group Stages – beating Mexico got them the significantly easier draw
Round of 16 – the Suarez show in a match the South Koreans kind of dominated
Quarter Finals – oh the heartbreak… i will remember this ending forever
Why They Will Win – they have the ability to shut down and make the most out of set pieces, a dangerous combination
Why They Will Lose – Suarez accounts for as many shots and as many goals as their talisman sexy Diego
What Will Happen – Uruguay will cause the dutch to sweat and will make them work very hard for the win

Germany
Sometimes being someone else just works better

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the team i said was going to make it to the semi-finals…
Also Known as – … although i said they needed something real special to win it…
Mea Culpa – … they found the something real special easier than i expected
Strength – stamina and the counter attack
Weakness – they don’t have a go to guy when frustrated or when playing from behind
Team Identity – counter attack
Creative Chaos – no clear player, maybe Ozil and Muller if i have to pick
Spine – Schweinsteiger, Lahm
Composure – apart from the Klose red card this youthful team is very composed
Momentum and Consistency – the best team at the world cup so far including the Serbia game they dominated but lost
Health – Ballack missing was thought an issue, they have overcome rather easily
Fearlessness – their performance against England comes to mind especially their reaction to the non-goal goal
Luck – the non-goal goal could have changed the game
One Word to Describe Their Game – emboldened
Group Stages – Germany qualifying is the closest thing we have to a formality in football
Round of 16 – a combination of a strong performance, a bad call, and an opponent in disarray
Quarter Finals – absolutely dominated the spine, as expected
Why They Will Win – they are supreme on the counter and their stamina has taken the saying ‘never discount Germany in the last 20 min’ to a whole new level
Why They Will Lose – where is the spark coming from when the counter doesn’t work?
What Will Happen – they will win the first 20 min and the last 20 min of the game

Spain
Playing like you think you’ve already won it

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the deepest, most talented, most frustrating, entitled team
Also Known as – the new age 1998 to 2006 Brazil or the team that can win with several sub-par performances
Mea Culpa – i thought Del Bosque would do better by now
Strength – the depth of the squad
Weakness – they seem to fall asleep during the game
Team Identity – possession football
Creative Chaos – Xavi, Iniesta, David Villa, and from the bench Cesc
Spine – Alonso, Busquets, Puyol
Composure – possession football requires  excellent composure, they are currently the best in the world at it
Momentum and Consistency – this is the biggest question mark for the spanish
Health – i believe health will be brought up as an excuse if they fail to advance
Fearlessness – David Villa is throwing himself at every opportunity, Torres should watch and learn
Luck – they have gotten so far without playing real well
One Word to Describe Their Game – underwhelming
Group Stages – they thought they were entitled to win the group coming in: surprise!
Round of 16 – their best game of the world cup so far
Quarter Finals – their worst game of the world cup so far
Why They Will Win – the only way to stop them is to play them physically, 97 fouls suffered so far
Why They Will Lose – they haven’t played a ‘spanish’ game, maybe against Portugal, in a very long time
What Will Happen – if they score first they will win

group H: la furia roja o la furia aburrida

another letter and yet another straightforward group. the one thing to take care of is not finishing second, which could mean a date with Brazil. that shouldn’t be a concern for favorites Spain. i agree with you Mufti in that it could be too easy of a group for them and might mess with their psyche. i doubt del Bosque will let that happen though. is this the beginning of another championship for Spain or another disappointment?

Spain
check out the previous post at: Analysis of Spain’s final World Cup squad

Chile
obvious – they finished second in their qualification group, a point behind Brazil. Humberto Suazo is a super striker that lead all scorers in south american qualification. this team is heavy in the front by playing a preferred 3-4-3. they’re very strong away from home and at altitude, both will be helpful in South Africa.
pitfalls – they lost games to each of their groupmates in the past 3 years, all friendlies away from home. they are inconsistent and can’t seem to figure out strong opposition. we haven’t seen them in a world cup since the days of Marcelo Salas and Ivan the terrible Zamorano, i.e. not enough experience in the squad.
verdict – the second strongest team in this group and might give Spain a run for its money when they meet in the final game of group play. Bielsa, still rightfully notorious for the Argentina first round exit in 2002, is a wild card: will we see a repeat of 2002 or the deep runs of the copa america and the olympics in 2004?

Switzerland
obvious – they qualified. they are coached by Ottmar Hitzfeld
pitfalls – they lost to Luxembourg while qualifying from a weak group. they lost three games and tied one in their run up to the world cup. Frei, the talisman, is potentially not playing healthy, or at all.
verdict – their inconsistency and lack of momentum coming into the world cup will hurt them. the lack of depth won’t help either.

Honduras
verdict – they’re hoping for a first world cup victory, with their best chance coming against Switzerland. besides that, thank you for playing.