i still know who will win the world cup

Mufti and i had an extensive conversation yesterday regarding the semi-finalists and the world cup as a whole. we talked ourselves in circles regarding who would win what matchup, whether our predictions were any good, and whether this world cup is the best ever. we amicably agreed that this was the best world cup – so far – of our conscious lifetime. it has a little of everything and a whole lot of drama.

before the world cup we predicted and i ended up with three of four. none of the four teams in the semi-finals or who they beat to get there surprises me. several people had Spain, no surprise there. few had the germans, including their own. even fewer had the dutch, considering the potential clash with the former ‘Dunga kings’. hardly anybody had Uruguay – my consolation: i had the right group but the wrong team. what is surprising to everyone though is the style each team got to the semi-finals.

in the spirit of over-analyzing the shit out of this on my first full day back, here is the Pastor approved world cup semi-final gibberish.

Netherlands
Paving the yellow brick road

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the pre-tournament world champions
Also Known as – the team that gives me, as a Real Madrid fan, major heartburn
Mea Culpa – the only time i had doubts about them winning was right after the Brazil goal when they looked exposed
Strength – several sources of creativity
Weakness – they leave themselves exposed in defense at times
Team Identity – adaptability
Creative Chaos – Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie
Spine – Van Bronckhorst, Van Bommel, De Jong
Composure – 12 yellow cards so far but none compromising yet…
Momentum and Consistency – 24 game unbeaten streak
Health – Van Persie and Mathisjen are supposedly fit…
Fearlessness – can we just agree to call the second half against Brazil fearless?
Luck – the first goal by Brazil was deemed offside… considering the refereeing at the world cup that’s awfully lucky
One Word to Describe Their Game – adaptable
Group Stages – clinical
Round of 16 – easy
Quarter Finals – inspired
Why They Will Win – they can play different styles of football and they make very few mistakes
Why They Will Lose – they’re my pick to win it all
What Will Happen – they are the most aggressive team left in the world cup: 82 fouls committed. they will beat the win out of Uruguay

Uruguay
Whatever it takes

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the inconsistent team with a very high potential
Also Known as – the team missing a lot of components
Mea Culpa – i have had a crush on this team for a while but liked Mexico a bit more because i lived there
Strength – set pieces
Weakness – they tend to let their opponents dictate the game
Team Identity – maximize opportunities
Creative Chaos – Forlan, Suarez, Lodeiro
Spine – Arevalo, Perez and Pereira
Composure – two players attempted to stop the ball with their hands on the last play in extra time against Ghana, that’s what i call a competitive presence of mind
Momentum and Consistency – i wonder if they might be spent from the emotional rollercoaster quarter-final
Health – Luis Suarez isn’t unhealthy but he isn’t playing either
Fearlessness – Luis Suarez
Luck – Asamoah Gyan
One Word to Describe Their Game – blunt
Group Stages – beating Mexico got them the significantly easier draw
Round of 16 – the Suarez show in a match the South Koreans kind of dominated
Quarter Finals – oh the heartbreak… i will remember this ending forever
Why They Will Win – they have the ability to shut down and make the most out of set pieces, a dangerous combination
Why They Will Lose – Suarez accounts for as many shots and as many goals as their talisman sexy Diego
What Will Happen – Uruguay will cause the dutch to sweat and will make them work very hard for the win

Germany
Sometimes being someone else just works better

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the team i said was going to make it to the semi-finals…
Also Known as – … although i said they needed something real special to win it…
Mea Culpa – … they found the something real special easier than i expected
Strength – stamina and the counter attack
Weakness – they don’t have a go to guy when frustrated or when playing from behind
Team Identity – counter attack
Creative Chaos – no clear player, maybe Ozil and Muller if i have to pick
Spine – Schweinsteiger, Lahm
Composure – apart from the Klose red card this youthful team is very composed
Momentum and Consistency – the best team at the world cup so far including the Serbia game they dominated but lost
Health – Ballack missing was thought an issue, they have overcome rather easily
Fearlessness – their performance against England comes to mind especially their reaction to the non-goal goal
Luck – the non-goal goal could have changed the game
One Word to Describe Their Game – emboldened
Group Stages – Germany qualifying is the closest thing we have to a formality in football
Round of 16 – a combination of a strong performance, a bad call, and an opponent in disarray
Quarter Finals – absolutely dominated the spine, as expected
Why They Will Win – they are supreme on the counter and their stamina has taken the saying ‘never discount Germany in the last 20 min’ to a whole new level
Why They Will Lose – where is the spark coming from when the counter doesn’t work?
What Will Happen – they will win the first 20 min and the last 20 min of the game

Spain
Playing like you think you’ve already won it

Known by the Friends of the Blog as – the deepest, most talented, most frustrating, entitled team
Also Known as – the new age 1998 to 2006 Brazil or the team that can win with several sub-par performances
Mea Culpa – i thought Del Bosque would do better by now
Strength – the depth of the squad
Weakness – they seem to fall asleep during the game
Team Identity – possession football
Creative Chaos – Xavi, Iniesta, David Villa, and from the bench Cesc
Spine – Alonso, Busquets, Puyol
Composure – possession football requires  excellent composure, they are currently the best in the world at it
Momentum and Consistency – this is the biggest question mark for the spanish
Health – i believe health will be brought up as an excuse if they fail to advance
Fearlessness – David Villa is throwing himself at every opportunity, Torres should watch and learn
Luck – they have gotten so far without playing real well
One Word to Describe Their Game – underwhelming
Group Stages – they thought they were entitled to win the group coming in: surprise!
Round of 16 – their best game of the world cup so far
Quarter Finals – their worst game of the world cup so far
Why They Will Win – the only way to stop them is to play them physically, 97 fouls suffered so far
Why They Will Lose – they haven’t played a ‘spanish’ game, maybe against Portugal, in a very long time
What Will Happen – if they score first they will win

Matchday 9, Match 24: Netherlands vs Japan

The Dutch fans can consider themselves unlucky that both their first match against Denmark and this one are at this ungodly hour. But a decent turnout nonetheless. The Dutch are unchanged from their opening match, with Arjen Robben not risked yet, although he has now taken part in training after his hamstring injury. We’re off.

1st half:

5th minute: First Dutch foray and it results in a corner which is cleared by the Japanese defense.

10th minute: An overhead kick from Kuyt? Whatever next? Never see that from him at Liverpool. He even made decent contact Still 0-0.

11th minute: Japan finally show a little bit of what they’re capable of as a shot from their left back flashes just wide.

22nd minute: Japan are not giving the Dutch any space at all. Not sure for how long they can keep it up but for now, the Dutch are frustrated. Best embodied by the misplaced passes from Wesley Sneijder. Not common that you’d see that in his club play at Internazionale.

40th minute: Netherlands have dominated possession (70%) but have had a very hard time breaking down an organized, hard-working Japan side. Japan look very capable of stealing a goal too with a couple of decent runs forward from their full backs. The Dutch should take lessons from the other big teams that have come up against organized, defensive-minded opposition and come undone, such as Spain, England or Germany. No guaranteed results here.

Half-time: Hm. I did expect Japan to be organized, defensive but I also expected the Dutch to do better than they did in that first half against Denmark. Van der Vaart has done better in what seems to be a roaming role and Sneijder is sitting a bit further back. I’m not sure if it’s worked, though. Sneijder looked better when pushed up against Denmark so he could dictate play and spray ball outs to Elia or Kuyt on the wing. Elia is on the bench again, and I fully expect him to come on in the second half to get some penetration on that left wing. Japan are sitting back and hitting the Dutch on the counter and they look tidy going forward, only a couple of touches away from opening up the Dutch. If they score, Netherlands could be really under the kosh.

2nd half:

53rd minute: What a strike! Van Persie with the layoff and Sneijder smacks the ball at full power and goalkeeper Kawashima gets a hand to it but it flies into the net. Dutch have obviously started the second half in much better shape and it had been coming. 1-0 to the Netherlands.

57th minute: Japan are looking to get back into the game, with Okubo trying his luck from distance twice. Now they have a succession of corners, all of which are cleared.

70th minute: It’s Japan now playing the possession game. Their final ball hasn’t managed to meet a player but they are threatening. The Dutch sitting back now, I think they need a substitution to inject some fresh legs into the attack. And here it is, Elia coming on for Van Der Vaart.

80th minute: Dutch a little disappointing as they are sitting back and waiting for a counter. A bit of a dangerous strategy as Japan look to equalize. The match has faded since the goal.

85th minute: Finally, the Dutch with a great move and chance, and it’s the two substitutes combining, Elia to Affelay. Affelay runs at goal and he has to score but Kawashima makes a great save, redeeming himself a little bit for letting in Sneijder’s shot earlier.

88th minute: Affelay misses again! He really should have put that one away as he combines with Klaas Jan Huntelaar who has just come on. Kawashima again denies him and Affelay really should have put this game away for the Dutch. Will the Dutch be left to rue these two missed chances?

90th minute: Whoa, whoa. Japan with an amazing opportunity in the last minute of regulation time and it’s over the bar, but that really was a bit too close for comfort. Dutch living dangerously as we enter three minutes of added time.

92nd minute: A dive from Japan and for a minute everyone in the bar is gasping as the referee seems to point to the spot. But it’s only a goal kick. I can breathe again.

Full-time: The tension is finally broken. I wish the Dutch had put away this match as they deserved to but all credit to Japan for really coming out after Sneijder’s goal and giving the Dutch a scare. I’m impressed by Japan’s team and I think they have every chance of qualifying with their next game coming up against Denmark. Their buildup play is fine but they need to find those goals. The Netherlands are well on their way to the last 16 and they will be satisfied, but they still haven’t lit up their attacking play like they are capable of. Not convinced by the starting lineup or the tactics so far but of course, they’ve played two games against defensive, organized teams and I think we’ll see the real Dutch team when they play against a team going after the game. They may have started slow but the World Cup is also about pacing and hitting stride in the latter stages of the competition is more important.

Up next: Ghana vs Australia. No offense to any of the teams playing today but apart from this Dutch game, no real big-market teams playing today considering it is Saturday.

Matchday 4, Match 9: Netherlands vs Denmark

After Germany mauled Australia yesterday, the Netherlands will be attempting to better their rivals in this rather more difficult looking game against the Danes. No major surprises in the teams, with Robben not recovering in time to be part of the team and van der Vaart starts. Ah, what a problem to have for a coach, picking between the likes of Robben, van der Vaart, Sneijder. This Dutch team is of course a bit of a favourite like previous teams but there seems to be a unity and quiet confidence that I don’t remember seeing before.

I also don’t remember seeing this many people at the bar here at 4 30 am before. This is the first bigger market match to play in this awkward time slot and I’m glad to see a decent Oranje contingent getting behind their team. Quite a few Danish supporters too and the neutrals seem to have adopted the underdogs.

Midgame:

With half an hour gone, the Dutch have been superbly marshalled by an organized and committed Danish side. Some old stagers in the Danish side, Rommedahl still playing, while the Dutch have van Bronckhorst at left back. The clearest opportunities have come for the Danes, who are letting the Netherlands dominate possession and looking to hit them on the counter. Bendtner, of course, missed a header and Stekelenberg pulled off a decent save from Rommedahl after a swift counterattack. The Dutch attack seems a little overcrowded with van der Vaart and Sniejder seeming to get in each other’s way. A slight rejig at half-time perhaps for coach van Marwijk?

It is now half-time, and the much-vaunted creativity of the Dutch has only been seen in fits and starts. Kuyt and van der Vaart, on the right and left respectively, are guilty of drifting inside a little too much, although Kuyt improved in that regard. I’m not convinced by Sneijder so far although he can make a case for van der Vaart getting in his way. Reminds me a little bit of the Kaka/Ronaldinho problem for Brazil in 2006. Just like Ruud Gullit just said on ESPN, it does seem like van Bronckhorst needs a bit more support on the left from van der Vaart. Haven’t seen a lot of van Persie either. Okay, now I have to look up how to write a Dutch name like van der Vaart at the beginning of a sentence. Do I capitalize the V or not? An important question.

46th minute: As soon as the half starts, the Danes score — against themselves. Van Persie (I figured out the capitalization, you see) sends in a cross towards Kuyt, Poulsen heads it against Agger’s back and the ball goes in for the first own goal of this World Cup (sorry Rob Green, you don’t get credit for that goal).

85th minute: You know when Dirk Kuyt scores that your attack’s not working all that well. Okay, okay, I’ll lay off and it was a great ball from Sneijder to sub Elia, who has had a good impact since coming on for Van der Vaart. Elia’s shot hit the post and Kuyt gleefully put away the rebound. Oooh, Afellay almost scores but the ball is acrobatically cleared by own-goal scorer S. Poulsen. We’re into added time here at the end of the second half and looks like three points for the Dutch. Unfortunately, not a vintage performance from the Netherlands. They kept possession well and Denmark had nothing in the second half, but both goals had an element of luck involved, and the big guns Van Persie and Van der Vaart didn’t have a great game. Sneijder has looked better since Van der Vaart left the field and Elia’s performance and direct running on the left shows a need for penetration from the Dutch on the wing. Robben should solve that problem when he returns to the team.

Full-time: Not much more to add to what I just wrote on above. A win’s a win and the Dutch will go into the match against Japan with renewed confidence. That should be an easier defense to handle for this attack. Questions for Bert van Marwijk over the fluency of said attack but he should be satisfied with a solid midfield and defensive performance. For the Danes, they tired in the second half and had nothing in attack after taking Bendtner off. This is the last hurrah for players like Dennis Rommedahl (who started), Jesper Gronkjaer (who came on as a sub) and Jon Dahl Tomasson (who did not play) but are they too old to advance? They had a great qualification campaign but I fear Cameroon are going to give them a torrid time in what for them is the key game of the group.

What’s next? Ah, Cameroon vs Japan. And breakfast.

Finger Injury Knocks Mufti Out of World Cup

And the list grows! Robben and Drogba are major doubts, John Obi Mikel is definitely out now, Essien and Ballack we already knew about. Even the Americans got in on the act as Jozy Altidore was laid up with an injury.

Do you think this is Supercat’s fault? Is he trying to spoil our World Cup by systematically making sure that star players don’t travel to South Africa? Stop it, Supercat, I want to see these guys play!

We might as well stop trying to predict who will be winning the World Cup and start predicting which team can survive the World Cup with most of its star players intact. That team might well be the one winning the Cup while the rest will be left playing what-if.

group E: redemption song

i am awake indeed.

this is the group of redemption. primarily because any group that has the Netherlands  is a group of redemption. we also have the greatest hope for african redemption at this world cup according to Mufti. but as we all know by now, this is only a temporary state of fickleness.

on an unrelated note, this group gives me major heartburn…

Netherlands
obvious – the oranje dominated the qualification once again. they can line up  Sneijder, Robben, and van der Vaart. that’s three creative monsters (can you imagine combining these three with C. Ronaldo? well i can but the #$@!%$* at Real can’t). they have a very strong and experienced defense (doesn’t it seem to be the theme of teams capable of challenging?). Bert has them playing like a team determined to win instead of just exhibiting beautiful football…
pitfalls – …or does he? is it possible their mind games end up messing them up? is it possible the dislike they might have for each other trumps their willingness to win a cup? let’s get ready to underachieve!
verdict – is it possible that this dutch team is coming to the tournament under the radar? can Bert keep the potential off the field issues, well, off the field? how well will all this talent play together? can i answer these questions in time for the tournament? can i stop asking questions?

Denmark
obvious – one of the surprise qualifiers considering they were in the same group as Portugal and the swedes. they play with purpose and have overachieved recently thanks to their long time coach Olsen.
pitfalls – no euro 2008. no world cup 2006. no international competitive experience.
verdict – it’s between them and Cameroon to keep up with the Netherlands. it will come down to Le Guen v Olsen. who can keep the team focused? who can win the matchup?

Cameroon
obvious – Kameni is an ‘indomptable lion’ in goal. i saw him in action in la liga this year and he has been stellar. the defense is strong and lightning fast. Paul Le Guen has done an excellent job keeping this team together and focused after a slow start to the qualification campaign.
pitfalls – the defense relies too much on its strength and speed and gets caught out of position sometimes. the attack, led by an out of form Eto’o, is getting old and needs to be more consistent. these are minor complaints though. their weakest link is by far a rather inexperienced midfield.
verdict – this is the team that brought the world’s attention to Africa in 1990. they have a strong defense and a world class goalscorer trying to redeem himself after a underwhelming season. Kameni will keep them in games they are supposed to lose. it all comes down to the best french coach at world cup to find a way to keep them focused and composed.

Japan
obvious – same as all other AFC teams, nothing is obvious to me.
pitfalls – they haven’t won a single game at a world cup away from home.
verdict – thank you for playing.