Matches 43 & 44: Denmarks vs Japan & Cameroon vs Netherlands

Bit of a late start from me. We’re 8 minutes in. Just speaking to my Italian friend over here, and he’s regretful of Marcelo Lippi’s decision to not shake the other coach’s hand after the Italian loss. Domenech and now Lippi. Classy guys. Cameroon playing for pride, Denmark and Japan playing for progress.

1st halves:

11th minute: Both games have been quite good so far, all four teams attacking away. No goals yet but they will come.

17th minute: Japan have taken the lead. A perfect free kick from Keisuke Honda is in at the far post. A bit against the run of play as Denmark had been dominating. In the other game, Robin Van Persie has a shot saved.

30th minute: Another free kick, another goal. It’s Endo this time on the other side of the net. The Danes don’t seem to know how to set up a wall. It’s 2-0 to Japan and the impressive showing of the Asian teams at this World Cup continues. In the other match, Dirk Kuyt misses. I say that quite a lot as a Liverpool fan.

36th minute: I knew he was going to score someday. Robin Van Persie puts the ball through the goalie’s legs and the Dutch are up 1-0.

Half-time: Scores at half-time are Netherlands 1 Cameroon 0 and Japan 2 Denmark 0. I certainly did not expect this second result but Japan have played well and Denmark look a little shell-shocked by those two free kicks. What was that about the Jabulani not being controllable? Looks fine to Endo and Honda. The other game has been open, with both teams having their chances. Still no Robben for the Dutch, but they are probably saving him for the second round where they are likely to come up against Slovakia.

2nd halves:

48th minute: Almost a disastrous error from Thomas Sorensen in the Danish goal as a long ball that should be easy for any goalkeeper slips out of his hands and bounces off the post.

64th minute: A penalty to Cameroon. Handball, very clear, in the box. Not intentional but Van der Vaart still raised his arm, even if he was trying to protect himself. Eto’o scores from the spot, and it’s 1-1. It doesn’t change anything in the group standings.

72nd minute: A buzz goes around the room among the Dutch fans as Arjen Robben is about to come on. He replaces Van der Vaart. And speaking of comebacks, here’s veteran Rigobert Song for Cameroon.

80th minute: It’s all happening in the Japan/Denmark match. First, the Danes hit the bar and then there’s a push in the box and Denmark have a penalty. Lifeline? Denmark will still need two more goals if this goes in.

81st minute: It’s saved! But Tomasson, who took the penalty, hits the rebound in. Kawashima thumps the ground with his fist in fury. Can Denmark manage two more in the 10 minutes or so left? I somehow doubt it.

83rd minute: There’s Robben with his impact. He dribbles around the Cameroon defense and lets loose an amazing shot that hits the post and Klaas Jan Huntelaar is on hand to smash in the rebound. 2-1 to the Dutch. Again, there is no change in the standings.

87th minute: It’s all over for the Danes as Japan score again and lead 3-1. Honda creates the goal for Okazaki to tap in. In the other game, the Dutch are denied a clear penalty. Another exciting end. I love these two matches stuff at once but I don’t think my nerves can take it any more.

Full-time: Cameroon go out of the World Cup with no points to their name. A shame really for a team from whom much was expected. The Dutch are the second team to qualify with a 100% record after Argentina (the two teams I’ve picked to meet in the final). I think Brazil will join them in that select group tomorrow when they play Portugal. Denmark were soundly beaten by a Japanese team that was very impressive and controlled the match very well apart from a short spell in the first half. Their goals gave them immense confidence and credit to them, they kept attacking and ruthlessly finished off the Danes. They deserve to be in the second round. Their coach’s prediction of a semifinal place for his team was laughed at prior to the World Cup; I’m sure he’s got a wry smile for the detractors.

The second round will be set in stone tomorrow and then we can get down to the real business of winning the World Cup. Extra time, penalties, drama. This is way, way too much fun.

Match 26: Cameroon vs Denmark

According to the commentator, if Cameroon lose this match they will be the first team to be eliminated from the World Cup. They certainly need a response after a poor performance against Japan. Will Eto’o score? Will Bendtner manage a shot on target? For me, as for the first time this week I have to work, I’m looking at only a few hours of sleep this evening before the 4 30 am Paraguay vs Slovakia match. Caffeine overload to look forward to. As for these teams, Denmark have gone for experience with both Jesper Gronkjaer and Jon Dahl Tomasson in the starting lineup. For Cameroon, Geremi and Alex Song start as well. Just reading too that Nicolas Anelka has been sent home from the French squad after he insulted coach Dumbenech and then later refused to apologize. You won’t find me often agreeing with Le Sulk’s antics but this time around I have to say that I don’t blame the poor bastard. The French must have already given up on the second round though they still have a chance of qualifying. On to this match.

1st half:

10th minute: An early answer to my question, then. The Danish defense has a disaster as goalkeeper Sorensen passes to Poulsen as he’s under pressure. Poulsen’s pass to Kjaer is easily intercepted, the cross comes in to Samuel Eto’o and he doesn’t often miss from that distance. 1-0 to Cameroon. They have started much better than the Danes.

33rd minute: And an answer to my other question as Bendtner not only gets a shot on target but also scores. After a sustained period of Cameroon pressure a perfect long ball over the top from Kjaer finds Rommedahl whose center is gleefully slid home by Bendtner. Counter-attacking goals don’t get much better than that. Good game.

42nd minute: End-to-end. First it’s Denmark as they pick up the ball in midfield and Cameroon throw bodies in front of the shot, then it’s Cameroon who hit the post, then Denmark have Bendtner going over in the area, no penalty given and then a shot from Cameroon is saved. I’m getting better at typing without looking at screen or keyboard. Quite a thrilling end to this half.

Half-time: A thrilling match so far. Mistakes from both sides lead to openings and plenty of goal-mouth action. It could easily be 3-3 at this point, with players throwing themselves at shots, players hitting the post, players going down in the box. More of the same in the second half, I hope. Both coaches will want their defenses to tighten up, especially Denmark who have passed the ball carelessly at times. Cameroon look much better going forward than they did against Japan, with Geremi looking good on the right and Alex Song dictating play from the middle. Fun.

2nd half:

46th minute: Bendtner has been substituted. Possible that his injury problems have resurfaced. That’s a blow for Denmark. Oh wait, has he? The TV graphic has confused me. Ah, ESPN was wrong there. It’s actually Martin Jorgensen who has come off. We start in much the same vein as the last half ended, with two Cameroon corners and a counter-attack by Denmark.

49th minute: Cameroon threaten again and that’s a great tackle from the Danish defender there in the box. It’s too loud in the bar for me to hear who he is. BBC informs me it’s the substitute, Jensen.

61st minute: Whoever is running the graphics for ESPN is screwing up. Denmark just scored and all it said was Denmark offside and the score is still 1-1 on the continuous graphic. There, they finally changed it. Only took two minutes! Which is less time, must less time, than it took Denmark to turn defense into attack. Webo missed a great opportunity for Cameroon and Denmark go up the other end with Rommedahl. Everyone expects him to cross but he shoots and it’s perfectly placed beyond the goalkeeper. It’s 2-1 to Denmark.

66th minute: I hope this isn’t over. Cameroon threaten again, and a shot going over the bar.

71st minute: Cameroon need to watch out in defense. Jon Dahl Tomasson only has the keeper to beat but a good save from Souleymanu denies him. Should be 3-1 to Denmark.

75th minute: Cameroon have 15 minutes to save their World Cup. Denmark are content to sit back and hit Cameroon on the break.

77th minute: Great save by Sorensen as Emana makes a run at goal. There is still hope for Cameroon.

82nd minute: Poulsen uses his face to major effect to deflect a shot from Aboubakar. Don’t think he meant to do that, looks painful.

84th minute: Almost every single outfield player in the box from both teams for that Cameroon corner. Now they have a free kick. Both come to nothing.

86th minute: Idrissou with a header but he’s offside anyway. He hasn’t played too well since he’s come on, with some wayward crosses. Little more than 5 minutes left.

89th minute: Another Cameroon corner. Can they do something? No.

90th minute: Three minutes of added time. A Danish fan in the crowd can barely look at the pitch but Denmark are looking comfortable now.

Full-time: Cameroon are out of the World Cup, the first of the 32 teams to be eliminated. Eto’o walks off the field in tears. This renders their match against the Netherlands meaningless, and means that the Dutch are the first team to qualify for the Round of 16 after their earlier victory over Japan. It’s tough on Cameroon after a great match and a great effort but they were torn apart on the counter-attack by the Danes who recovered from a shaky defensive start to give themselves a great chance to qualify when they play Japan.

Hm, do I have time for a nap before work? I wish we had those Japanese pod hotels around here that you could rent by the hour. As it is, I’ll probably be sleeping at work tonight before the Slovakia vs Paraguay game in the morning. Beware: I’m going to be cranky.

Matchday 4, Match 9: Netherlands vs Denmark

After Germany mauled Australia yesterday, the Netherlands will be attempting to better their rivals in this rather more difficult looking game against the Danes. No major surprises in the teams, with Robben not recovering in time to be part of the team and van der Vaart starts. Ah, what a problem to have for a coach, picking between the likes of Robben, van der Vaart, Sneijder. This Dutch team is of course a bit of a favourite like previous teams but there seems to be a unity and quiet confidence that I don’t remember seeing before.

I also don’t remember seeing this many people at the bar here at 4 30 am before. This is the first bigger market match to play in this awkward time slot and I’m glad to see a decent Oranje contingent getting behind their team. Quite a few Danish supporters too and the neutrals seem to have adopted the underdogs.

Midgame:

With half an hour gone, the Dutch have been superbly marshalled by an organized and committed Danish side. Some old stagers in the Danish side, Rommedahl still playing, while the Dutch have van Bronckhorst at left back. The clearest opportunities have come for the Danes, who are letting the Netherlands dominate possession and looking to hit them on the counter. Bendtner, of course, missed a header and Stekelenberg pulled off a decent save from Rommedahl after a swift counterattack. The Dutch attack seems a little overcrowded with van der Vaart and Sniejder seeming to get in each other’s way. A slight rejig at half-time perhaps for coach van Marwijk?

It is now half-time, and the much-vaunted creativity of the Dutch has only been seen in fits and starts. Kuyt and van der Vaart, on the right and left respectively, are guilty of drifting inside a little too much, although Kuyt improved in that regard. I’m not convinced by Sneijder so far although he can make a case for van der Vaart getting in his way. Reminds me a little bit of the Kaka/Ronaldinho problem for Brazil in 2006. Just like Ruud Gullit just said on ESPN, it does seem like van Bronckhorst needs a bit more support on the left from van der Vaart. Haven’t seen a lot of van Persie either. Okay, now I have to look up how to write a Dutch name like van der Vaart at the beginning of a sentence. Do I capitalize the V or not? An important question.

46th minute: As soon as the half starts, the Danes score — against themselves. Van Persie (I figured out the capitalization, you see) sends in a cross towards Kuyt, Poulsen heads it against Agger’s back and the ball goes in for the first own goal of this World Cup (sorry Rob Green, you don’t get credit for that goal).

85th minute: You know when Dirk Kuyt scores that your attack’s not working all that well. Okay, okay, I’ll lay off and it was a great ball from Sneijder to sub Elia, who has had a good impact since coming on for Van der Vaart. Elia’s shot hit the post and Kuyt gleefully put away the rebound. Oooh, Afellay almost scores but the ball is acrobatically cleared by own-goal scorer S. Poulsen. We’re into added time here at the end of the second half and looks like three points for the Dutch. Unfortunately, not a vintage performance from the Netherlands. They kept possession well and Denmark had nothing in the second half, but both goals had an element of luck involved, and the big guns Van Persie and Van der Vaart didn’t have a great game. Sneijder has looked better since Van der Vaart left the field and Elia’s performance and direct running on the left shows a need for penetration from the Dutch on the wing. Robben should solve that problem when he returns to the team.

Full-time: Not much more to add to what I just wrote on above. A win’s a win and the Dutch will go into the match against Japan with renewed confidence. That should be an easier defense to handle for this attack. Questions for Bert van Marwijk over the fluency of said attack but he should be satisfied with a solid midfield and defensive performance. For the Danes, they tired in the second half and had nothing in attack after taking Bendtner off. This is the last hurrah for players like Dennis Rommedahl (who started), Jesper Gronkjaer (who came on as a sub) and Jon Dahl Tomasson (who did not play) but are they too old to advance? They had a great qualification campaign but I fear Cameroon are going to give them a torrid time in what for them is the key game of the group.

What’s next? Ah, Cameroon vs Japan. And breakfast.

Predicting…injuries for everyone!

El Pastor, your prediction post is stellar work indeed. I have to admit that your breakdown of what it takes to win a World Cup is something I wholeheartedly agree with. The World Cup is ostensibly the pinnacle of the sport, the best of the world getting together to decide who wins. But at the risk of exposing myself as the cynical bastard that I truly am, I am going to make some sweeping statements that probably won’t hold up under further scrutiny. (Stop scrutinizing, Pastor.) To be sure, it’s a great tournament, and I’ll be peeing myself with excitement as I sit in a dingy bar at 7 am on June 11th. But is it really what it claims to be, the best of the best?

You make a great point about fitness, being fit enough to play seven games in a month at the end of long domestic seasons. And a lot of the best players that this World Cup might have seen have already crumbled. Some of these players held a big sway over their teams; they were the undoubted stars: Essien, Drogba. Some were integral parts of the coaches plan and they would have been definite starters if available, but the team can move on without them: Ferdinand, Ballack, Nani. And then there are the players nearing fitness, players that haven’t played a game in a few weeks, players that are just getting back to the levels they were capable of: Ashley Cole, Gareth Barry, Miroslav Klose, etcetera. It is sad to be without these players because they are the reason you watch the World Cup. Perhaps with all these players missing, it really isn’t the greatest collection of talent the World Cup has seen in recent times.

But I actually do agree with you. There aren’t really any big teams that failed to make the World Cup this time around (Guus Hiddink’s Russia might be the only exception). We have strong coaches leading even the smaller teams. Despite those missing above, we have players on a majority of teams that are capable of changing games, scoring sometimes the only goal needed for progress. It really does come down to moments then, as it always does. And in my mind, that’s the danger, the lurking scepter of Euro 2004 and Greece. I will not begrudge them their victory in that tournament, they fought for it and won it. But did the best team win that tournament? Absolutely not. Could that happen in South Africa? Absolutely. That is tournament football, when it comes down to those moments. That uncertainty is what makes the World Cup special but it also means that unfortunately the best team does not always win.

I seem to be talking myself into circles. Perhaps I should take off this turban. It’s hot in here, I’m thinking too hard. On to my predictions for the World Cup then, considering you’ve forced my hand. I’m going to make it slightly harder on my already overtaxed neurons and go ahead and predict scores as well. My nerdy Excel spreadsheet will then spit out the results and surprise even me.

[I have just returned from the end of this post using my time-travelling turban and read this on the BBC. Looks like not many people are picking the team I picked to win the World Cup! Bah to them! What do they know?][Looks like at least two people on Soccernet know what we are banging on about, though.]

i know who will win the world cup

many pundits say predicting a world cup is for idiots. i say they’re the idiots. trying to predict a world cup may indeed be silly but aren’t several things we enjoy most in life? for example, i enjoy irritating the great Mufti of the west by predicting he will start drinking again by mid-afternoon local time on July 2nd.

this is the best collection of talent i ever remember seeing at a world cup, on the squads and on the injury report. if the last few years in football have taught us anything it is that anybody can win a tournament in any given year (exhibit one, two, three, four, the uefa cup) as long as they do the obvious.

obvious – to win football games you need to do one single thing, the golden rule if you may: score one more goal than the opposition.

to win a single elimination tournament you need to be consistent with the golden rule, you also need: to do one thing really really well (team identity), a spine, composure, momentum and consistency, health, fearlessness, and luck. all you can do as a team is put yourself in the best position to win and then hope you don’t face Greece – just kidding… not really.

do one thing really really well (team identity): every team will hit a lull at some point or even be outplayed. if a team does one thing really really well then such occurrences become bearable. an overbearing defense can get a lackluster performance from the attack a few extra chances. a destructive attack can allow for a temporarily porous defense. doing one thing really really well will buy you mistakes.

spine: it’s the infrastructure of the team. having a world class defense, midfield or attack on its own is not as critical as having a spine. the spine is the roamer in front of the back four reducing pressure. the spine is the all around distributor whose pinpoint passes make an above average striker seem world class. the spine is the setup, the stop, the break of the opponent’s flow, the towering midfield header, the physical presence, and more… in a player or two.

composure: pressure can take its toll. pressure from previous tournaments can take its toll. composure comes from the top down, from the manager to the players, from the captain to the newbie. the hope of a nation could come down to one simple kick for eternal glory. composure is key.

momentum and consistency: you naturally need it during the tournament but also coming into the tournament. the quality of play has to be present throughout the qualification and friendlies. the team has to play together without too many changes in order to maximize potential.

health: this is a tournament of stamina and health. the winner is looking at 7 strong performances in a month. players might not need to be in mid-season shape but at the very least they need to be healthy. (funny how everything comes down to relativity in single elimination tournaments: you don’t have to be the best of all time but simply the best on that day)

fearlessness: winning a single elimination tournament takes balls, very large ones at times. think of this comeback. think of this goal. think of this one too. this one rules them all. let’s make this easier. think of a save (0:29), then another (1:49), and then another (3:00). think of this free kick.
luck: when the opportunity presents itself you hand the ball, that’s called opportunistic. the referee not seeing it, that’s called luck.

power ranking – here are the teams, grouped by potential to win the world cup based on the criteria above.

thank you for playing – teams glaringly missing several of the components
South Africa – South Korea – Algeria – Slovenia – Japan – New Zealand – Slovakia – Korea DPR – Switzerland – Honduras

teams that could have an impact – they are are missing a few components
Uruguay – Nigeria – Australia – Ghana – Denmark – Paraguay – Chile

teams with an outside chance – they have most of the criteria but will need something real special
Mexico – France – USA – Germany – Serbia – Cameroon – Italy – Cote D’Ivoire – Portugal

favorites – why they will win in three words or less and why they won’t in two or less
Argentina
will – Messi, best attack
won’t – defensive midfield
England
will – defense, composure (Capello)
won’t – health, pressure
Netherlands
will – most creative team
won’t – self-destructive
Brazil
will – best all-around
won’t – umm… stumped
Spain
will – best talent, Xavi
won’t – health, focus

Greece (the category)
Greece (the team)

group E: redemption song

i am awake indeed.

this is the group of redemption. primarily because any group that has the Netherlands  is a group of redemption. we also have the greatest hope for african redemption at this world cup according to Mufti. but as we all know by now, this is only a temporary state of fickleness.

on an unrelated note, this group gives me major heartburn…

Netherlands
obvious – the oranje dominated the qualification once again. they can line up  Sneijder, Robben, and van der Vaart. that’s three creative monsters (can you imagine combining these three with C. Ronaldo? well i can but the #$@!%$* at Real can’t). they have a very strong and experienced defense (doesn’t it seem to be the theme of teams capable of challenging?). Bert has them playing like a team determined to win instead of just exhibiting beautiful football…
pitfalls – …or does he? is it possible their mind games end up messing them up? is it possible the dislike they might have for each other trumps their willingness to win a cup? let’s get ready to underachieve!
verdict – is it possible that this dutch team is coming to the tournament under the radar? can Bert keep the potential off the field issues, well, off the field? how well will all this talent play together? can i answer these questions in time for the tournament? can i stop asking questions?

Denmark
obvious – one of the surprise qualifiers considering they were in the same group as Portugal and the swedes. they play with purpose and have overachieved recently thanks to their long time coach Olsen.
pitfalls – no euro 2008. no world cup 2006. no international competitive experience.
verdict – it’s between them and Cameroon to keep up with the Netherlands. it will come down to Le Guen v Olsen. who can keep the team focused? who can win the matchup?

Cameroon
obvious – Kameni is an ‘indomptable lion’ in goal. i saw him in action in la liga this year and he has been stellar. the defense is strong and lightning fast. Paul Le Guen has done an excellent job keeping this team together and focused after a slow start to the qualification campaign.
pitfalls – the defense relies too much on its strength and speed and gets caught out of position sometimes. the attack, led by an out of form Eto’o, is getting old and needs to be more consistent. these are minor complaints though. their weakest link is by far a rather inexperienced midfield.
verdict – this is the team that brought the world’s attention to Africa in 1990. they have a strong defense and a world class goalscorer trying to redeem himself after a underwhelming season. Kameni will keep them in games they are supposed to lose. it all comes down to the best french coach at world cup to find a way to keep them focused and composed.

Japan
obvious – same as all other AFC teams, nothing is obvious to me.
pitfalls – they haven’t won a single game at a world cup away from home.
verdict – thank you for playing.

Capello’s coterie

The big news today (at least in the English press) is Theo Walcott’s exclusion from Fabio Capello’s World Cup squad. I still think he’s probably a better impact substitute than Shaun Wright-Phillips (Aaron Lennon seems to have claimed the starting right midfield berth) but Capello has gone for the experience of Wright-Phillips and probably his habit of scoring goals in an England shirt. Capello also went for experience in picking Joe Cole over Adam Johnson for a possible left-midfield berth or, more likely, coming off the bench. Cole was one of the few players to acquit himself in the friendly against Japan and has played his way into the team. The same cannot be said for Tom Huddlestone, who was part of a horrible first half against Japan and lost his place to Michael Carrick, who isn’t much better in my mind but does have more big-game experience in his time with Man Poo. He isn’t too likely to feature if Gareth Barry recovers from his ankle injury, as is expected. It is a little disappointing that just like in the last two World Cups, there is an injured English player going to the World Cup even if Barry isn’t in the same talismanic league as Beckham in 2002 or Rooney in 2006.

The best names on a final World Cup squad probably belong to the hosts South Africa. It would have been even more awesome if Innocent Mdedle had made the squad. Will South Africa have a tragic first round as indicated by the inclusion of MacBeth [Sibaya]? Or will they spring a Surprise [Moriri] and win their group, caning France and Mexico along the way like they did Guatemala yesterday? More seriously, all-time top scorer Benni McCarthy has been left out of the squad, probably because he’s fat.

In other friendly news (yes, I gave up the friendly puns, aren’t you happy, Pastor?), Australia beat Denmark 1-0 earlier today and in about an hour, Cameroon take on Portugal and the Netherlands play Ghana. Both matches actually look like they could be interesting contests, even if they are warm-up games. I am especially curious to see how the African teams progress. I really want an African team in the semifinals; Cameroon look the strongest at the moment. (I’m unceremoniously abandoning the Algerians, they should have never trusted me.) Also curious to see if the portents of doom regarding Portugal are justified.

I never thought I’d say this, but Pastor I miss you. Come back and make me feel stupid again. It is my lot in life, and I am learning to accept it.