Matchday 13: Slovenia vs England & USA vs Algeria

Why do England always do this to me? Why do I do it to myself? They never make it easy. Is today the day I finally give up on them? If England go out of the World Cup today, I’m officially abandoning them forever.

Luckily, they’ve increased their chances by dropping Emile Heskey. Aaron Lennon is also dropped and James Milner starts. Perhaps a bit more solid on the right. There does not seem to be a change of system, however, from Fabio Capello. And they might have decreased their chances by dressing like numpties in an all red kit. All red looks a bit silly. Oh well, whatever helps them, I guess.

Oh there’s another match? No one told me although I suppose I could have figured it out from the loud crowd downstairs. USA drop Oguchi Onyewu, who had been good in defense. And Edu, the scorer of the disallowed goal, starts in place of Torres and Hercules Gomes comes in for the suspended Robbie Findley. I can’t wait for this. Here we go!

1st halves:

6th minute: Chances coming thick and fast in USA vs Algeria, as Algeria hit the post and USA go up the other end and the keeper saves. The corner comes to not much. England vs Slovenia staid so far, though Slovenia have a free kick. England have trouble clearing it. Oh look at that! Rooney with the ball and a great cross that’s cleared for a corner. He can play, after all.

16th minute: England actually playing a little bit as Frank Lampard hits a free kick which the keeper saves and then just misses a great through ball from Rooney. The playing surface is apparently a bit suspect after heavy rain. In the other game, it looks end-to-end. Bill Clinton is at that match.

21st minute: Chances in both matches. USA have the ball in the net but it’s chalked off for offside. It was at the third attempt at shooting after confusion in the Algerian defense. Slovenia have a shot that’s smothered by James. Slovenia do look scary coming forward, and Terry just had a last ditch tackle to stop a shooting opportunity. I can breathe again.

22nd minute: Yes yes yessss. Defoe scores! Milner crosses from the right, a cross Lennon would have botched, and Defoe scores, a shot that Heskey would have missed. Good switches from Capello. 1-0 to England.

27th minute: Lampard should have made that 2-0! Shit! The goal keeper knocks a ball into his path but he shoots it over the bar. No, Frank, must do better than that.

31st minute: Great from England. Defoe’s shot is saved into the path of Rooney, he passes to Gerrard whose shot is just saved and almost bobbles over the line Robert Green-style but the goalie manages to get a hold of it. This is the England we have been waiting for.

35th minute: USA should be ahead as Algeria barely survive. If it stands as it is, England and Slovenia are going through. One goal can change everything, though.

37th minute: How can Altidore miss that? He’s got an open enough goal and he shoots high, high over the bar. Terrible. They need a goal.

43rd minute: Algeria almost take the lead with a shot that goes just over the top corner of the goal. USA still taking potshots but I think they are getting frustrated.

Half-time: England are one up but this should be over. As the Englishman who just left to go to work said, “They are reverting to that cruise control that scares the crap out of me.” England need to keep the intensity high, just like they did after the goal when they had two good chances to put the game away. Still, this is a much, much improved display from England not that it would have taken much to improve over that Algeria debacle. USA are not taking their chances but at least they did not concede early. They can be unhappy with another disallowed goal though, that decision looks very marginal. Actually, just seen the replay and Dempsey is onside. Unfair on USA. Algeria still in with a chance.

2nd halves:

48th minute: England almost start on fire as a quickly taken corner by Rooney causes confusion in the box, and the ball comes to Defoe who just misses with his flick on. If they lose now, I won’t forgive him. Glen Johnson has a yellow for diving but it wasn’t a dive. He has to be careful now.

50th minute: Everyone thought that was a goal. Cole slips a great ball to Rooney who centers for Defoe to hit it in but it is, after all, offside. They have started the second half really well. Slovenia dive and get a free kick.

55th minute: Careless from Gerrard as England concede a free kick but it’s easily saved by James.

57th minute: England have a corner after a good spell of pressure. A bit of impressive play even down the right by Milner and Johnson. Terry’s header is saved amazingly on the line. That’s an awe-inspiring save. It’s Rooney and he’s onside! But he hits the post! Shit! And in the other game, USA hit the post! The rebound is hit wide by Dempsey when he really should have scored. Disappointment all round in this room from both sets of supporters.

61st minute: A text from my American friend after that Dempsey miss: “Fucking fuck!”

64th minute: England have another corner. There’s an amazingly obvious dive in the other game from an Algerian player. Worthy of an Italian, I’d say.

68th minute: Desperate, desperate defending from England. It all started with Gerrard giving the ball away, which he’s done a few times already, and Slovenia have a chance in the box. A block by Terry and then a block by Johnson before a shot goes wide. All of England can breathe again. The USA in the meanwhile keep missing chance upon chance.

73rd minute: Look who it is. It’s Joe Cole on for Wayne Rooney, who might be hurt. Sounds like he didn’t shake Capello’s hand as he came off. Is he mad at the boss?

83rd minute: Can England hold on? Can’t believe how nervous I am, my hands are shaking. Or that might be the overload of coffee. USA trying really hard, Algeria doing nothing except defending. DaMarcus Beasley comes on for USA. Didn’t know he was still around.

76th minute: “Clap clap clap, England, clap clap clap, England!” in this room, “USA! USA! USA!” in the next.

79th minute: A little disappointing from England as they try to waste time instead of going for the second goal. Same old England, really, in the end.

81st minute: It’s very tense in both matches as the Americans have a free kick. Saved again. Now they have a corner. Cleared. Slovenia are out if USA score.

85th minute: England are out if Slovenia score. And they have a corner. Heskey is on for Defoe. The Slovenia shot from the corner is at skyscraper height.

88th minute: My nerves are shredded. It should not be this narrow. They make it so hard on everyone involved.

92nd minute: England time-wasting. A bit of frustration in the room. USA might be going out in 4 minutes. Beasley is booked for handball. A corner for England. OHMYGODOHMYGOD! USA have scored! England are through with a 1-0 win! Slovenia will be out if it if it stays like this. Two minutes for the US to go through! There’s a red card for an Algerian player.

94th minute: Thirty seconds left. And they are through! What a devastating end for Slovenia. As the final whistle blew in their match, Donovan scores in the other. USA deserved to win and go through. They are in first place based on goals scored. Donovan is in tears as he’s interviewed, the crowd here went absolutely insane, I’m about to go insane.

Full-time: What an end to these games. USA kept shooting and kept trying and are rewarded for playing well. They deserve to win the group. England finish in second place and have the very real prospect of facing Germany in the second round. We’ll find out in about two and a half hours. I need to go and take a rest.

The Hoof Awards: Partie Deux

The second phase of group matches is now over and my Excel spreadsheet has generated some odd matchups for the Round of 16. Japan vs Paraguay, anyone? I doubt that will remain the same. Tomorrow we start the overload of football that is the final phase of group matches, with two simultaneous games per group, four matches per day. I’m ready. And I’m also ready, as I’m sure everyone is, for another batch of Hoof Awards. I already spoke out of turn and handed out some Mini Hoofs earlier, but this is the real deal now.

My word, what a joke the French team has devolved into. Nicolas Anelka’s choice words to his coach Raymond Domenech have already garnered him a Mini Hoof. Things got further out of hand when the team refused to train the next day in protest at Anelka’s dismissal, and handed a written statement which was bizarrely read out to the press by Domenech. The coach has completely lost his team, the team has completely lost any sense of why they are at the World Cup, and it’s all a disaster. The joke on us? That with a win tomorrow against South Africa and a win for either Mexico or Uruguay in their match, France could still qualify for the second round. But I will say that I feel very confident in my prediction of a 2-0 win for South Africa. France can then go home and the only thing they will have to show for their puny efforts at this World Cup will be the Fils de Pute Hoof award, named after Domenech.

Our next award is named for the Greece team that won the European Championship of 2004. Not renowned for their attacking play, Greece defended their way to the title. In the first phase, the winner was Switzerland for their 1-0 win against Spain and in this round, the Euro 2004 Greece Hoof goes to New Zealand for their dogged, determined and at time desperate defensive display against Italy in their 1-1 draw. I usually do not admire this but all credit to New Zealand who played with a defiance and heart missing from many of the big teams (I’m looking at you, England and France).

Speaking of England, if France had not imploded like they have done, the biggest farce might well have been the coup d’tat attempt John Terry led against coach Fabio Capello. First with a press conference and then later in a meeting, former captain Terry apparently tried to force through a change of tactics as well as the inclusion of soon-to-be-former Chelsea teammate Joe Cole in the starting lineup. Anyone could have told him that such behaviour would never fly with disciplinarian Capello. At least him and his England colleagues can console themselves with an upgrade from Mini Hoof to the France 2002 Inept Performance Hoof for their match against Algeria.

In the first phase, I could not find an outright winner for the Graham Poll Worst Referee Hoof award. But in this phase, competition is almost too fierce. Everyone seems to be getting in on the act: Spanish referee Alberto Undiano for his flurry of first half yellow cards and a red for Miroslav Klose in the Germany/Serbia match, Malian referee Koman Coulibaly for disallowing a perfectly good US goal in the USA/Slovenia match, Saudi referee Khalil Al Ghamdi with his card-happy ways (9 yellows, 1 red) in the Switzerland/Chile game. But the winner for me has to be French referee Stephane Lannoy who officiated Brazil vs Ivory Coast. His first mistake was in not noticing Luis Fabiano touching the ball twice with his arm before scoring Brazil’s second goal. I’m not sure why he didn’t blow his whistle if he had seen it because a replay showed the referee, with a big grin on his face, asking Luis Fabiano whether he had handled the ball. Fabiano naturally admitted the action and asked the referee to cancel the goal. Of course, I make the joke, as Pastor would say. Later on in the game, Mr. Lannoy sent off Kaka for a second yellow card after Seydou Keita had gone down clutching his face after the mildest of collisions with Kaka. The referee could not have seen it but he sent Kaka off anyway. Terrible officiating. For his role, Keita picks up the Academy Award Hoof for his playacting.

The Saudi Arabia 2002 Hoof for worst performance in this phase goes to North Korea. Pastor thought they’d be whipping boys for this World Cup and although there were initial doubts when they only lost 2-1 to the mighty Brazilians, Portugal completely exposed the North Koreans with a blistering six-goal second half performance earlier today. The final score was 7-0, and I’m sure they’ll be keeping this Hoof till the end of the tournament. Portugal’s performance also means that they pick up the Fickle Fan’s World Champion Hoof award, fighting off competition from Argentina (4-1 over South Korea) and Uruguay (3-0 over South Africa).

David James unfortunately has not claimed the award named after him just yet, but I’m sure he’ll have a chance in Wednesday’s must-win match against Slovenia. In the meantime, the David “Calamity” James Hoof award for worst goalkeeping error goes to Vincent Enyeama of Nigeria for the second goal by Greece. Nigeria’s match was already in tatters after Sani Kaita’s needless sending off and Enyeama, so defiant against Lionel Messi, managed to knock a soft shot into the path of Torosidis who tapped in to give Greece a 2-1 win.

He already has a Mini Hoof but Wayne Rooney deserves more from his “loyal support”. For his worthless performance against Algeria, he can also now take home the Luca Toni Zombie Striker Hoof. Enjoy it, son, you deserve it.

Speaking of Italian strikers, we need an INZAGHI Hoof winner for the most opportunistic goal of this second phase. Let me consult my notes. Oh yes, it has to be this one. Lionel Messi might be the one lighting up the World Cup and carving open defenses, but it’s Gonzalo Higuain who has the goals. All three of his goals had a bit of that INZAGHI flavour, but it has to be his second. Messi shoots twice, once it is saved, once it hits the post and then Higuain just taps in the rebound on the way to his hat trick. Filippo would be proud.

It’s my turn to take the Eat-Your-Words Hoof. I really thought that the USA vs Slovenia was going to be a borefest but I was pleasantly surprised by the most exciting game I’ve witnessed so far (helped of course by the big, excitable crowd around me). Great stuff.

Finally, I’d like to award a Most Dedicated Fan Hoof to none other than my sibling Small Bee for her watching matches by herself in English pubs full of old men. Nice. Hope they weren’t angrily shaking their canes at the television after England/Algeria!

How to fill the time between matches? The Mini Hoof Awards!

I’ll admit right off the bat that I’m bored at work. I’ve just read everything there is to read about the World Cup on the internet (yes, I’m on a long shift) and now I’m officially out of things to do. And considering that the second phase of group stage games isn’t over yet, I can’t give out any actual Hoof awards plus I would need El Pastor’s irreplaceable input. Instead, I’m going to go ahead and award some Mini Hoofs because this second phase so far has had much more controversy, drama and good matches than the first. And as I said, I’m bored.

First off, I have to acknowledge the pivotal role Nigeria’s Sani Kaita had on his team’s match against Greece. With his team leading 1-0 and the Greeks devoid of offensive ideas, he chose to aim a silly little kick in the direction of future goalscorer Torosidis. Soon Kaita was heading back to the dressing room with his head covered by his shirt in shame. His award? The David Beckham Self-Implosion Mini Hoof. (You can see why here.) Nigeria went on to lose 2-1, putting their further participation at the World Cup in serious jeopardy.

You won’t need to rewatch that video for why the “victim” of Kaita’s ill-advised retaliation is awarded the Diego Simeone “Ma, I’m Hurt!” Mini Hoof. Vasilis Torosidis went down as if Kaita’s studs were composed of piranha teeth, thus insuring that the referee noticed the infraction and sent Kaita off. A sad part of the cynical modern game.

I feel sorry for Harry Kewell, but I can’t help but award him the Mini World Cup Experience Mini Hoof for the 24 minutes he enjoyed on the pitch against Ghana. The poor man had only seen five minutes of action since January, and his unfortunate hand ball on the line saw him get sent off. If Australia fail to beat Serbia in their next match, a match for which Kewell is suspended, then that will be the extent of Kewell’s 2010 World Cup participation.

He’s apologized but it’s going to be hard for him to live this down. Wayne Rooney was quite unhappy that England’s fans were upset with his England “team” after their dismal showing against Algeria. He said as much to the TV cameras as he walked off the pitch, stating, “Nice to hear your home fans boo ya. That’s what loyal support is.” Yes, Wayne, and please let me show you this: your very own Worst First Touch Mini Hoof. The award comes with a free pair of football cleats. Perhaps that will help next time you proudly and passionately play football for your country. Oh wait. Pride? Passion? Football? I suppose you don’t understand those words, do you?

We don’t hear much truth in this world, or in this World Cup. But all credit to Nicolas “Le Sulk” Anelka for speaking his mind to his clueless French coach Raymond Domenech. During half time of his team’s awful 2-0 loss to Mexico, Domenech apparently criticized Anelka’s performance. His response? “Va te faire enculer, sale fils de pute!” As I don’t have the services of language maven Pastor, I think that means “Go fuck yourself, you dirty son of a whore!” Um, my sentiments exactly, Nicolas. I’m sure Anelka will be proudly clutching his Veritas Mini Hoof as he flies home before the rest of the team.

Competition has heated up for the Graham Poll Worst Referee Hoof. At the moment, I can only award Mini Hoofs to these two referees and perhaps some more brethren will be competing with them by the end of this phase. Our first Mini Hoof goes to Spanish referee Alberto Undiano for his quickfire bookings in the first half of the game between Germany and Serbia. At one point, I think he gave out four yellow cards in six minutes. A red card was inevitable, and the unlucky player was Miroslav Klose. The second Mini Hoof has to go to Malian referee Koman Coulibaly for disallowing a perfectly legal third US goal against Slovenia, which would have completed an amazing turnaround for the Americans who were 2-0 down at the half. It seems like Mr. Coulibaly won’t be officiating any more games at the World Cup.

I suspect this match will receive a major Hoof of some sort but for now I will award my France 2002 Inept Performance Mini Hoof to…no, not France, though I’m tempted, but to England for their match against Algeria. The criticism has been heavy and scathing, and I must admit that I agree with most of it. I don’t think I can recall a worse England international match, and they have served up some utterly shambolic performances over the years. Rubbish.

Finally, Germany have gone from the optimism of their big win against Australia to the despair of their loss against Serbia. The stand-out culprit for me was Lukas Podolski. Usually so clinical in front of goal for his country if not for his club, he failed to hit the target from several decent opportunities. Even when he did hit the target, with his penalty, it was weakly taken and the Serbian goalkeeper saved it quite easily. He can console himself with his Zombie Striker Mini Hoof, and we can all look forward to his hat-trick against Ghana.

Match 22: Slovenia vs USA

Don’t know who to support for this game, really. I somehow cannot be too bothered. The US will probably win. The Slovenes will be hard to beat. 1-0 or 2-0 to US although I think I called for a draw in my prediction. “Go USA!” comes the yell from the packed bar. Um, yeah, I’m bored. Already.

13th minute: Maybe not anymore. Birsa has the ball in front of the penalty area and not a single American player closes him down. He has all the time in the world to tee himself up for a shot that flies in. Howard in the US goal stands and watches it go in. The US are left chasing a game again.

41st minute: The bar is extremely frustrated as there are three straight opportunities for the US. But the Slovenes have scored again! Is that offside? Despondency here. It’s not offside as the Slovenian player (I’ll learn to spell his name in a bit) runs onto the ball and slips it under Tim Howard. That is going to break the US as they were in the ascendancy right before the goal and suffered from an idiotic handball decision from the referee. 2-0 to Slovenia.

Half-time: That’s a shock for the USA especially since it seemed like they were going to score at any moment. They have played well in attack but their defense was culpable for both goals, failing to close down Birsa for the first and playing Ljubijankic onside for the second. I also wonder whether that bruised rib has made Tim Howard more tentative, although he can do little when his defense is playing this way. The Slovenes are playing much better than they did against Algeria and it’s because they have been given way too much space in midfield by the US. Coach Bradley has a big job to do at half-time to lift his players, who are certainly capable of coming back into this match. And yes, I am a bit excited, but the bar is now bored. “Same old USA” as everyone turns away and starts talking about England’s goalkeeping issues (the news is that James is starting in place of Fumbleduddy Green).

2nd half:

48th minute: Minutes from the restart and the US have reduced the deficit. Bradley makes two changes at half-time and the team gets the best possible start as Donovan runs onto a great ball over the top. It looks like the goalie had the angle closed down but Donovan with a great finish from a tight angle. We have a match.

51st minute: Almost! Donovan again, floating in a free kick that Onyewu almost makes contact with the ball at the far post. USA doing exactly what they need to do.

70th minute: A great game so far. The Slovenes have responded really well and have kept their shape but their final ball now seems to be lacking. The US keep coming but have managed a few shots at goal. Slovenia’s keeper Handanovic has kept them in the game. At the moment, Slovenia conceding a lot of free kicks and have two yellow cards in two minutes.

82nd minute: You can’t say that they don’t deserve it, and it is the coach’s son, Michael Bradley, who pulls the USA level. It’s 2-2. This bar has never been louder; I’m the only one left seated but everybody wants to high-five me anyway. How wrong I was about this match.

86th minute: That’s the USA’s win stolen from out of their hands. Donovan floats in another free kick and Edu has the ball in the net but the referee waves it off for an offside. It’s simply not the case and there’s even a foul on Bradley in the box that could have been a penalty. Two bad referees we’ve seen today.

88th minute: Slovenia aren’t done yet either. A header is saved by Howard. USA have every cause for grievance. The referee has been atrocious.

89th minute: A long range shot from Slovenia again, and Howard has to punch it away. He’s furious with his defense as he should be, no one closed the player down. We’re into three minutes of added time.

94th minute: Very soon to the end here. I’m unsure now whether that USA goal was disallowed for offside or for a USA foul. Whatever it was, a horrible decision.

Full-time: The referee is being roundly booed. Without him, the USA would have the win. All credit to them for a cracking second half, Bradley’s half-time decisions paid off and they really should be the winners here. Who would have thought this game would have been one of the best so far? Certainly not Mufti. But, not to toot my own horn (actually, yes, to toot my own horn), I correctly predicted a win for Serbia and a draw in this game, so now I’m up 15-10 on El Pastor. It won’t last, but I must savour it! Take that, Pastor!

Matchday 3: Algeria vs Slovenia

This is beginning to feel a little bit like a workday: get up, go to the bar, watch football. Right.

First off today we have Algeria vs Slovenia, a match that will have repercussions for England and USA after their 1-1 draw yesterday. I can’t help but root for the Algerians, the only Arabs at the tournament but the best result for England will be a draw here. I’ll be updating here for this game and then have new posts for the upcoming games (Serbia vs Ghana and Germany vs Australia).

Half-time update: Quite an even game so far, with not that many opportunities at goal for either team. There’s good build up play from Algeria but they haven’t really managed to threaten appropriately-named Slovenian goalkeeper Handanovic. The Slovenians have been restricted to long-range shots but have still forced Chaouchi in the Algerian goal into a couple of saves. He, by the way, gets the vote for worst haircut of the World Cup so far, at least until Cameroon plays. In other news, I have it from reliable sources that the Pastor will be making an appearance today on these pages. He’s been ominously silent as the World Cup has begun. Let’s see in what manner he’ll make me look stupid now (not that he has to try too hard).

Full-time (Algeria 0 Slovenia 1): A slow game with both teams struggling in attack but a first World Cup win for Slovenia, the goal coming off the keeper’s arm after he seemed to misjudge the bounce of the ball and seemed to be trying to catch it. Not an error of Green proportions but an error nonetheless from Koren’s rather tame shot. Slovenia went ahead shortly after substitute Ghezzal was sent off only 14 minutes after coming on, picking up his first yellow in seconds and his second for a brain-dead handball leaving the referee with no choice. Slovenia now at the top of the group, and they look impotent in attack but quite organized in defense. I still expect the US to beat them but England might have some trouble considering their attack’s difficulties against the US. I will stand by my prediction of England and Slovenia getting out of the group but I’m worried about what Slovenia might manage in that final game against England. I’m curious to see how Capello handles the Green situation. For me, Green seemed to recover well mentally from the blow and he has a small chance of keeping his spot for the game against Algeria. But I think Capello will go with the experience of David James.

Onto Ghana vs Serbia. Pretty excited about this game. No matches so far have really lit up the Cup so I am really hoping for something out of this.

Predicting…injuries for everyone!

El Pastor, your prediction post is stellar work indeed. I have to admit that your breakdown of what it takes to win a World Cup is something I wholeheartedly agree with. The World Cup is ostensibly the pinnacle of the sport, the best of the world getting together to decide who wins. But at the risk of exposing myself as the cynical bastard that I truly am, I am going to make some sweeping statements that probably won’t hold up under further scrutiny. (Stop scrutinizing, Pastor.) To be sure, it’s a great tournament, and I’ll be peeing myself with excitement as I sit in a dingy bar at 7 am on June 11th. But is it really what it claims to be, the best of the best?

You make a great point about fitness, being fit enough to play seven games in a month at the end of long domestic seasons. And a lot of the best players that this World Cup might have seen have already crumbled. Some of these players held a big sway over their teams; they were the undoubted stars: Essien, Drogba. Some were integral parts of the coaches plan and they would have been definite starters if available, but the team can move on without them: Ferdinand, Ballack, Nani. And then there are the players nearing fitness, players that haven’t played a game in a few weeks, players that are just getting back to the levels they were capable of: Ashley Cole, Gareth Barry, Miroslav Klose, etcetera. It is sad to be without these players because they are the reason you watch the World Cup. Perhaps with all these players missing, it really isn’t the greatest collection of talent the World Cup has seen in recent times.

But I actually do agree with you. There aren’t really any big teams that failed to make the World Cup this time around (Guus Hiddink’s Russia might be the only exception). We have strong coaches leading even the smaller teams. Despite those missing above, we have players on a majority of teams that are capable of changing games, scoring sometimes the only goal needed for progress. It really does come down to moments then, as it always does. And in my mind, that’s the danger, the lurking scepter of Euro 2004 and Greece. I will not begrudge them their victory in that tournament, they fought for it and won it. But did the best team win that tournament? Absolutely not. Could that happen in South Africa? Absolutely. That is tournament football, when it comes down to those moments. That uncertainty is what makes the World Cup special but it also means that unfortunately the best team does not always win.

I seem to be talking myself into circles. Perhaps I should take off this turban. It’s hot in here, I’m thinking too hard. On to my predictions for the World Cup then, considering you’ve forced my hand. I’m going to make it slightly harder on my already overtaxed neurons and go ahead and predict scores as well. My nerdy Excel spreadsheet will then spit out the results and surprise even me.

[I have just returned from the end of this post using my time-travelling turban and read this on the BBC. Looks like not many people are picking the team I picked to win the World Cup! Bah to them! What do they know?][Looks like at least two people on Soccernet know what we are banging on about, though.]

i know who will win the world cup

many pundits say predicting a world cup is for idiots. i say they’re the idiots. trying to predict a world cup may indeed be silly but aren’t several things we enjoy most in life? for example, i enjoy irritating the great Mufti of the west by predicting he will start drinking again by mid-afternoon local time on July 2nd.

this is the best collection of talent i ever remember seeing at a world cup, on the squads and on the injury report. if the last few years in football have taught us anything it is that anybody can win a tournament in any given year (exhibit one, two, three, four, the uefa cup) as long as they do the obvious.

obvious – to win football games you need to do one single thing, the golden rule if you may: score one more goal than the opposition.

to win a single elimination tournament you need to be consistent with the golden rule, you also need: to do one thing really really well (team identity), a spine, composure, momentum and consistency, health, fearlessness, and luck. all you can do as a team is put yourself in the best position to win and then hope you don’t face Greece – just kidding… not really.

do one thing really really well (team identity): every team will hit a lull at some point or even be outplayed. if a team does one thing really really well then such occurrences become bearable. an overbearing defense can get a lackluster performance from the attack a few extra chances. a destructive attack can allow for a temporarily porous defense. doing one thing really really well will buy you mistakes.

spine: it’s the infrastructure of the team. having a world class defense, midfield or attack on its own is not as critical as having a spine. the spine is the roamer in front of the back four reducing pressure. the spine is the all around distributor whose pinpoint passes make an above average striker seem world class. the spine is the setup, the stop, the break of the opponent’s flow, the towering midfield header, the physical presence, and more… in a player or two.

composure: pressure can take its toll. pressure from previous tournaments can take its toll. composure comes from the top down, from the manager to the players, from the captain to the newbie. the hope of a nation could come down to one simple kick for eternal glory. composure is key.

momentum and consistency: you naturally need it during the tournament but also coming into the tournament. the quality of play has to be present throughout the qualification and friendlies. the team has to play together without too many changes in order to maximize potential.

health: this is a tournament of stamina and health. the winner is looking at 7 strong performances in a month. players might not need to be in mid-season shape but at the very least they need to be healthy. (funny how everything comes down to relativity in single elimination tournaments: you don’t have to be the best of all time but simply the best on that day)

fearlessness: winning a single elimination tournament takes balls, very large ones at times. think of this comeback. think of this goal. think of this one too. this one rules them all. let’s make this easier. think of a save (0:29), then another (1:49), and then another (3:00). think of this free kick.
luck: when the opportunity presents itself you hand the ball, that’s called opportunistic. the referee not seeing it, that’s called luck.

power ranking – here are the teams, grouped by potential to win the world cup based on the criteria above.

thank you for playing – teams glaringly missing several of the components
South Africa – South Korea – Algeria – Slovenia – Japan – New Zealand – Slovakia – Korea DPR – Switzerland – Honduras

teams that could have an impact – they are are missing a few components
Uruguay – Nigeria – Australia – Ghana – Denmark – Paraguay – Chile

teams with an outside chance – they have most of the criteria but will need something real special
Mexico – France – USA – Germany – Serbia – Cameroon – Italy – Cote D’Ivoire – Portugal

favorites – why they will win in three words or less and why they won’t in two or less
Argentina
will – Messi, best attack
won’t – defensive midfield
England
will – defense, composure (Capello)
won’t – health, pressure
Netherlands
will – most creative team
won’t – self-destructive
Brazil
will – best all-around
won’t – umm… stumped
Spain
will – best talent, Xavi
won’t – health, focus

Greece (the category)
Greece (the team)

group C: thank you for playing

J’en sais beaucoup de par le monde
A qui ceci conviendrait bien :
De loin c’est quelque chose, et de près ce n’est rien.
Jean de la Fontaine, Le Chameau et les Bâtons flottants

From afar it is something big, and close it is nothing. that’s how i feel about this group.

England
check out the previous post: route to ’66

USA
the obvious – the team is the freshest of the major teams at the world cup. most of their players are in early season form. they have shown an ability to compete on the highest level by beating Spain and taking it to Brazil in the first half of the confederations cup final. they have a stable midfield and a pretty decent attack. their defence is experienced and stout. finally americans think this is the year their soccer team makes a deep run at the world cup. what? their opinion counts too!
the pitfalls – that was last year… in 2010 the USA has won one and lost three including a 2-4 drubbing at home. it’s a friendly, the first team wasn’t playing, both of which are good points. this was a Czech Republic squad that didn’t make it to the world cup out of a group that included fellow hopefuls Slovenia – also a good point.
the verdict – i don’t read too much in warm-up games. but, this USA squad has had a rollercoaster of a year with the confederations cup success, the Charlie Davies injury, and the string of bad results of late. one thing has to be said about world cup success, consistency is necessary. this USA squad is very talented but needs to get it together soon.

Slovenia
the obvious – they came out of a pretty deep qualification group. they don’t have any superstar and play like a real team. they surprised a lot of people, including me, when they came back to beat a very good Russia team.
the pitfalls – Slovenia hasn’t fared well in their only two international competitions, the last in 2002, which makes them a relatively inexperienced squad.
the verdict – many pundits are talking about this team as a potential surprise. i don’t buy it. their success lies in getting their first international competition victory.

Algeria
the obvious – this is a team that has been on a meteoric rise over the past two years resulting in a cockfight, and some increased  political tensions, with the previous emir of North Africa, Egypt. they win different types of games from a miraculous comeback against a heavy favorite to a grind-it-out battle against a fierce rival. they have an all-around tough squad.
the pitfalls – maybe it’s the lack of experience in a tournament but this Algeria team, after significant positive results in qualifying to the world cup, lost two games (0-3 and 0-4), tied one game, and won two games at the Africa cup of nations  in january, one win was the miraculous comeback linked above… lack of experience or tournament trend?
the verdict – this team has all the making of a team happy to have qualified. their less than impressive performance at the Africa cup of nations, except for the Ivory Coast game, lead me to believe this team, although a real potential threat, needs some more experience before having any impact at the world cup. unless Saadane can get them to play inspiring football again…

Group C: Capello’s comeuppance

We’ve already talked extensively about England so I only have a bit more to add. The final 23 still hasn’t been announced and Capello has given Gareth Barry even more time to recover, indicative of how important Capello feels Barry is to his plans. A school of thought definitely has been vocally suggesting that Gerrard should play through the middle behind Rooney like he does for Liverpool with Fernando Torres. It certainly is true that during the second half against Mexico when Gerrard moved in from the left, he linked up with Rooney dangerously a few times. Lampard should be used to playing slightly to the left of midfield from his exploits with Chelsea, with Barry or Huddlestone shielding the defense. In the latter stages of a match, impact subs like Defoe/Crouch, Lennon/Walcott (depending on who starts), and A. Johnson/J. Cole (depending on who makes the team) could return the team to a more familiar 4-4-2.

England should win this group but it is rare that England do what they’re supposed to do. Even when they do, they don’t make it easy. The English press doesn’t help either, and players capable of ruling the world with their clubs all of a sudden look like schoolboys playing their first big match as soon as they don an England shirt. This is exactly what teams like Slovenia, USA and Algeria will be seeking. The big European teams don’t fear England any more but they are still a big scalp for smaller teams like the ones England will be facing. They especially have to watch out for Algeria. I’m going to go out on this very rickety looking limb here and say that Algeria will be the first African team to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup (of course, if they lose to Ireland in the friendly tomorrow, my rickety limb will come crashing down early). They remind me a bit of Turkey in 2002. Technically proficient and very passionate, they have a lot of players that are based in France (obviously) and some that even played for French national youth and under-21 teams. Their weaknesses will be a lack of discipline and possibly a paucity of goals, although I think their midfield is capable of making up for that. Slovenia beat Guus Hiddink’s Russia to make the World Cup but I don’t think they are capable of coming through the first round. They are organized and they won’t be easy to beat so they should not be underestimated but I don’t see them scoring a lot.

Finally, the Americans will be looking to once again make their mark on world football. They’ve had their flashes of success but their coach has used a lot of players in qualifying and I don’t see the team playing as a solid unit. Still, their inconsistency makes them hard to predict. They are organized, capable of a good possession game and are a danger from set-pieces (something England will definitely have to watch out for in that first game). Landon Donovan had a good cameo at Everton earlier in the season, but I fear that the Americans depend too much on him.

I see England winning the group but suffering a draw against Algeria. USA and Slovenia could be a draw but I think the US might win this game but will still finish third behind Algeria. Like you said, Pastor, England could possibly avoid big names until the semifinals but if Germany have a hiccup in their group, they could face them in the second round. Even then, a Ghana or Serbia won’t be a pushover.

I leave you with this from Wikipedia.