many pundits say predicting a world cup is for idiots. i say they’re the idiots. trying to predict a world cup may indeed be silly but aren’t several things we enjoy most in life? for example, i enjoy irritating the great Mufti of the west by predicting he will start drinking again by mid-afternoon local time on July 2nd.
this is the best collection of talent i ever remember seeing at a world cup, on the squads and on the injury report. if the last few years in football have taught us anything it is that anybody can win a tournament in any given year (exhibit one, two, three, four, the uefa cup) as long as they do the obvious.
obvious – to win football games you need to do one single thing, the golden rule if you may: score one more goal than the opposition.
to win a single elimination tournament you need to be consistent with the golden rule, you also need: to do one thing really really well (team identity), a spine, composure, momentum and consistency, health, fearlessness, and luck. all you can do as a team is put yourself in the best position to win and then hope you don’t face Greece – just kidding… not really.
do one thing really really well (team identity): every team will hit a lull at some point or even be outplayed. if a team does one thing really really well then such occurrences become bearable. an overbearing defense can get a lackluster performance from the attack a few extra chances. a destructive attack can allow for a temporarily porous defense. doing one thing really really well will buy you mistakes.
spine: it’s the infrastructure of the team. having a world class defense, midfield or attack on its own is not as critical as having a spine. the spine is the roamer in front of the back four reducing pressure. the spine is the all around distributor whose pinpoint passes make an above average striker seem world class. the spine is the setup, the stop, the break of the opponent’s flow, the towering midfield header, the physical presence, and more… in a player or two.
composure: pressure can take its toll. pressure from previous tournaments can take its toll. composure comes from the top down, from the manager to the players, from the captain to the newbie. the hope of a nation could come down to one simple kick for
eternal glory. composure is key.
momentum and consistency: you naturally need it during the tournament but also coming into the tournament. the quality of play has to be present throughout the qualification and friendlies. the team has to play together without too many changes in order to maximize potential.
health: this is a tournament of stamina and health. the winner is looking at 7 strong performances in a month. players might not need to be in mid-season shape but at the very least they need to be healthy. (funny how everything comes down to relativity in single elimination tournaments: you don’t have to be the best of all time but simply the best on that day)
fearlessness: winning a single elimination tournament takes balls, very large ones at times. think of this
comeback. think of this
goal. think of this
one too. this
one rules them all. let’s make this
easier. think of a
save (0:29), then another (1:49), and then another (3:00). think of this
free kick.
luck: when the opportunity presents itself you
hand the
ball, that’s called opportunistic. the referee not seeing it, that’s called luck.
power ranking – here are the teams, grouped by potential to win the world cup based on the criteria above.
thank you for playing – teams glaringly missing several of the components
South Africa – South Korea – Algeria – Slovenia – Japan – New Zealand – Slovakia – Korea DPR – Switzerland – Honduras
teams that could have an impact – they are are missing a few components
Uruguay – Nigeria – Australia – Ghana – Denmark – Paraguay – Chile
teams with an outside chance – they have most of the criteria but will need something real special
Mexico – France – USA – Germany – Serbia – Cameroon – Italy – Cote D’Ivoire – Portugal
favorites – why they will win in three words or less and why they won’t in two or less
Argentina
will – Messi, best attack
won’t – defensive midfield
England
will – defense, composure (Capello)
won’t – health, pressure
Netherlands
will – most creative team
won’t – self-destructive
Brazil
will – best all-around
won’t – umm… stumped
Spain
will – best talent, Xavi
won’t – health, focus
Greece (the category)
Greece (the team) (more…)
The Dark Horses 